Vintage 2023 Release Notes
The Vintage 2023 population estimates reflect the following methodological changes since the release
of the Vintage 2022 estimates. For more detail, please refer to the full Vintage 2023 methodology
statement: http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
Base Population
Whereas the latest decennial census has traditionally served as the population estimates base, the 2020
Census could not be adopted for this purpose. This was the result of unique challenges including the
unavailability of specific data required for estimates processing and delays caused by the COVID-19
pandemic. As a result, the Population Estimates Program developed a process for integrating multiple data
sources at varying levels of demographic and geographic detail to produce an estimate for April 1, 2020
that is referred to as the “blended base.” For Vintage 2023, these sources were:
• 2020 Census Data: 2020 Census data from the internal Census Edited File (CEF) tabulated into
2023 geographies at the subcounty level, infused with differentially private noise, and then
aggregated to create county, state, and national total resident, household, and group quarters (by
facility type)1 population counts. Vintage 2023 was the first to also incorporate Hispanic or Latino
origin from the 2020 Census PL 94-171 Redistricting File for the total resident population.
• 2020 Demographic Analysis (DA)2 Estimates: National population estimates by age and sex.
• Vintage 2020 Population Estimates for April 1, 2020: Nation, state, and county population
estimates by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. As of Vintage 2023, Hispanic origin from Vintage
2020 is specifically used to distribute the household and group quarters (by facility type)
populations, since the total resident population by Hispanic origin is now being drawn from the
2020 Census.
In the Vintage 2023 blended base at the national level, resident, household, and group quarters
population totals are derived from the 2020 Census; age and sex detail is drawn from 2020 DA; race detail
comes from the Vintage 2020 estimates for April 1, 2020; and Hispanic origin detail comes from the 2020
Census.
The Vintage 2023 blended base for Puerto Rico did not feature changes relative to Vintage 2022.
1 The seven major GQ facility types utilized in estimates production are: correctional institutions, juvenile institutions, nursing
homes, other institutional facilities, college dormitories, military housing, and other noninstitutional facilities. While we do not
release data on GQ by facility type, we do use them to calculate population universes such as “civilian noninstitutionalized.”
2 The 2020 DA estimates of the national population by age, sex, and race or Hispanic origin on April 1, 2020 are developed from
current and historical vital records, estimates of international migration, and Medicare records. The DA estimates are independent
from the 2020 Census and are used to calculate net coverage error, one of the two main ways the U.S. Census Bureau uses
population estimates to measure coverage of the census. For more information, see https://www.census.gov/programs-
surveys/decennial-census/about/coverage-measurement/da.html.
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