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vikranthviki

Causal Decision Agent

by vikranthviki

snips

Read-only

Estimate an off-policy policy value from logged data using self-normalized importance sampling, reducing variance when importance weights are large while correcting for logging propensities.

Instructions

Self-normalised IPS (bias-reduction for large IS weights). Assumptions: Same identification conditions as IPS (known propensities, positivity, no unmeasured confounding); Self-normalisation trades a small bias for large variance reduction under heavy importance weights. Pre-conditions: X (context), A (logged action), R (reward) and logging propensities are available. Failure modes: Residual bias when effective sample size is tiny (few logged actions overlap the target policy) -> Collect more on-support logged data or switch to the doubly-robust estimator. Alternatives: sp.ips, sp.doubly_robust, sp.direct_method. Typical minimum N: 500.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
AYesA parameter (np.ndarray).
RYesR parameter (np.ndarray).
XYesFeature matrix or covariate DataFrame.
clipNoclip parameter (float).
alphaNoSignificance level for confidence intervals and tests.
detailNoPayload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip.agent
as_handleNoIf true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running.
data_pathNoAbsolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://.
pi_targetYespi_target parameter.
result_idNoOptional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns.
pi_behaviorNopi_behavior parameter (Optional[np.ndarray]).
data_columnsNoOptional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads.
data_sample_nNoOptional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv0.1.0

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the readOnlyHint annotation, the description discloses the statistical tradeoff ('trades a small bias for large variance reduction'), the identification assumptions, the failure mode when 'effective sample size is tiny', and a remedial strategy. This gives the agent a truthful model of the estimator's behavior and limitations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense but every clause earns its place: method, tradeoff, assumptions, preconditions, failure mode, alternatives, and sample size guidance. It is front-loaded with the essential identity of the tool and uses compact labelled sections rather than rambling prose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a 13-parameter estimator with an output schema, the description provides the statistical context an agent needs: identification conditions, required inputs, failure modes, alternatives, and sample-size guidance. Return-value details are covered by the output schema, so nothing critical is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3, but the description adds semantic roles beyond the schema: X is 'context', A is 'logged action', R is 'reward', and it mentions 'logging propensities' as a precondition. This clarifies what the opaque parameter names mean, though many params (clip, alpha, detail) are not discussed in the description.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description identifies the tool as a specific estimator ('Self-normalised IPS') and explains its purpose: 'bias-reduction for large IS weights'. It distinguishes itself from related methods by naming alternatives (sp.ips, sp.doubly_robust, sp.direct_method) and by stating the bias-variance tradeoff, so an agent can tell it apart from sibling tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly says when the method is appropriate ('under heavy importance weights'), states assumptions, pre-conditions, and failure modes, and names concrete alternatives including when to switch ('switch to the doubly-robust estimator'). It also gives a practical 'Typical minimum N: 500' guardrail, which is actionable selection guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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