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vikranthviki

Causal Decision Agent

by vikranthviki

conformal

Read-only

Estimate calibrated prediction intervals for causal effects, addressing covariate shift, counterfactuals, and heterogeneous treatment effects with valid coverage.

Instructions

Unified conformal causal inference dispatcher. kind= selects the estimator: 'cate' / 'counterfactual' / 'ite' (Lei-Candes 2021 base) / 'weighted' (TBCR 2019 primitive) / 'density' / 'multidp' / 'debiased' / 'fair' (2025-2026 frontier) / 'continuous' (dose-response) / 'interference' (cluster-exchangeable). Kwargs pass through to the target function; see sp.conformal_family guide. Assumptions: Exchangeability of calibration and test points (base case); For kind='weighted': known or estimable density ratio between calibration and test; For kind='cate' / 'ite': selection-on-observables with correct propensity / outcome model. Pre-conditions: calibration sample disjoint from training sample (auto-split or user-supplied); exchangeability between calibration and test distributions (weighted variants for covariate shift); for CATE / ITE variants: unconfoundedness + overlap on covariates. Failure modes: Calibration and test distributions differ (covariate shift) -> Use kind='weighted' with estimated density ratios; Calibration set too small -- intervals wide -> Increase calibration sample or raise alpha; coverage gets loose below ~100; Miscalibrated nuisance (propensity / outcome) for CATE...

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
kindNoConformal estimator -- call sp.conformal_available_kinds() for the full list.cate
detailNoPayload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip.agent
as_handleNoIf true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running.
data_pathNoAbsolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://.
result_idNoOptional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns.
data_columnsNoOptional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads.
data_sample_nNoOptional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv0.1.0

TDQS

B3.3/5.0
Behavior1/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description says 'Kwargs pass through to the target function,' implying that additional/unlisted arguments are accepted, while the annotations set openWorldHint=false, indicating a closed-world parameter set. This is a direct contradiction, so the description fails behavioral transparency despite providing useful failure-mode context.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The opening sentence is strong and front-loaded, and the enumerations are valuable. However, the final failure-mode passage is a long run-on that ends with '...' without completing the miscalibrated-nuisance sentence, making the structure feel unfinished rather than intentionally concise.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity, the description covers assumptions, preconditions, and failure modes, and the schema-plus-output-schema combination covers parameters and return structure. It is nearly complete, but it relies on an external guide for kwargs and leaves the failure-mode list truncated, preventing a 5.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description adds meaningful semantics beyond the schema for the central parameter `kind`, listing estimator families and linking assumptions/failure modes to specific choices. Other parameters like `detail` and `as_handle` are already well documented in the schema, so no further description is needed.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a specific role ('Unified conformal causal inference dispatcher') and enumerates the estimator kinds it can select, so an agent can tell what the tool computes. It does not explicitly differentiate itself from sibling tools such as conformal_ite, conformal_fair_ite, or conformal_synth beyond the word 'unified.'

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit when-to-use guidance for estimator variants: e.g., covariate shift should use kind='weighted' with estimated density ratios, and small calibration sets should be addressed by increasing calibration sample or alpha. It does not discuss when to use this dispatcher versus the conformal-specific sibling tools, but it covers the internal kind-selection decision well.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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