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vikranthviki

Causal Decision Agent

by vikranthviki

ipw

Read-only

Estimate average treatment effects (ATE, ATT, ATC) from observational data using inverse probability weighting, with propensity score trimming to handle extreme weights and positivity violations.

Instructions

Inverse Probability Weighting for ATE/ATT/ATC with propensity score trimming. Validation: certified parity evidence. Assumptions: Sequential exchangeability / no unmeasured confounding at each time point; Positivity: every treatment level is possible given the past; Correct specification of the treatment and/or outcome models. Pre-conditions: Sequentially measured covariates, (time-varying) treatment, and outcome; Models for the treatment process and the outcome (or weights). Failure modes: Stabilized weights have extreme values (positivity near-violation) -> Truncate weights, simplify the treatment model, or use a doubly-robust estimator (TMLE). Alternatives: sp.tmle, sp.g_computation, sp.ipw. Typical minimum N: 300.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
yYesOutcome variable column name or outcome array.
trimNoPropensity score trimming threshold
treatYesTreatment indicator or first-treatment-period column.
detailNoPayload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip.agent
estimandNoTarget estimandATE
as_handleNoIf true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running.
data_pathYesAbsolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://.
result_idNoOptional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns.
covariatesYesCovariate matrix, DataFrame, or column names.
data_columnsNoOptional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads.
data_sample_nNoOptional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv0.1.0

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, and the description goes beyond by detailing assumptions, pre-conditions, failure modes, and typical minimum N. This adds meaningful context about the tool's internal logic and limitations, which is not captured by annotations alone.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is information-dense yet well-organized with labeled sections (Validation, Assumptions, Pre-conditions, Failure modes, Alternatives, Typical N). The core purpose is front-loaded, and every sentence contributes useful information without unnecessary fluff.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The description covers assumptions, preconditions, failure modes, alternatives, and minimum sample size—all critical for a causal inference tool. Combined with the full parameter schema and output schema, the definition is nearly complete. The only gap is explicit when-to-use vs. specific alternatives, but that is partly addressed in the failure modes.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the schema already documents all 11 parameters. The description adds marginal value by contextualizing 'trimming' and the estimand choices, but it does not fundamentally enhance parameter understanding beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description states a specific method (Inverse Probability Weighting) and target estimands (ATE/ATT/ATC) with propensity score trimming. It also names alternative tools (sp.tmle, sp.g_computation), though listing sp.ipw as an alternative to itself is slightly confusing. Overall, the purpose is unmistakable.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides assumptions (sequential exchangeability, positivity, model specification) and failure modes with suggested remedies (e.g., use TMLE when weights are extreme), which guide when IPW is appropriate. However, it lacks explicit 'use this when X, use alternative when Y' comparisons beyond the failure-mode hint.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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