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vikranthviki

Causal Decision Agent

by vikranthviki

doubly_robust

Read-only

Estimate a target policy's expected reward from logged data via doubly-robust offline policy evaluation, consistent if either outcome or propensity model is correct.

Instructions

Doubly-robust OPE (Dudik et al. 2011). Assumptions: Doubly robust: consistent if EITHER the outcome (Q) model OR the logging propensity model is correctly specified; Positivity / common support holds; No unmeasured confounding in the logged data. Pre-conditions: X, A, R, logging propensities and a fitted Q-model (or its predictions) are available. Failure modes: Both nuisance models misspecified -- DR guarantee is lost and the estimate is biased -> Cross-fit the nuisances or validate the Q-model and propensity fit separately. Alternatives: sp.ips, sp.snips, sp.direct_method. Typical minimum N: 500.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
AYesA parameter (np.ndarray).
RYesR parameter (np.ndarray).
XYesFeature matrix or covariate DataFrame.
clipNoclip parameter (float).
alphaNoSignificance level for confidence intervals and tests.
detailNoPayload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip.agent
as_handleNoIf true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running.
data_pathNoAbsolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://.
n_actionsNoNumber of actions.
pi_targetYespi_target parameter.
result_idNoOptional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns.
pi_behaviorNopi_behavior parameter (Optional[np.ndarray]).
data_columnsNoOptional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads.
data_sample_nNoOptional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv0.1.0

TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already mark this read-only, and the description adds the statistical behavior that matters: the double-robustness consistency condition, the failure mode (biased estimate when both nuisance models are misspecified), and a mitigation (cross-fit or validate each nuisance separately). No contradiction with readOnlyHint=true.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is organized into labeled sections (Assumptions, Pre-conditions, Failure modes, Alternatives, Typical minimum N) and is front-loaded with method identity. It is dense and the failure-mode sentence is a run-on, but every section earns its place for an estimator with strong statistical assumptions.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a 14-parameter estimator with an output schema (so return values need no explanation), the description covers validity conditions, prerequisites, failure modes, alternatives, and a sample-size rule of thumb. The main gap is the absence of explicit guidance on when to prefer IPS/SNIPS/DM over DR.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the schema already documents all 14 parameters and the baseline is 3. The description adds limited mapping context — pre-conditions mention X, A, R, logging propensities, and a fitted Q-model — which helps interpret pi_behavior and pi_target conceptually, but it does not detail parameter formats or interactions beyond that.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with 'Doubly-robust OPE (Dudik et al. 2011)', naming a specific, citable estimator, and explains its defining property: consistent if either the outcome or propensity model is correctly specified. The verb and resource are somewhat implied by the method name rather than stated explicitly, and sibling differentiation comes only later via the Alternatives line.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It names sibling estimators (sp.ips, sp.snips, sp.direct_method) and lists validity assumptions (positivity, no unmeasured confounding) along with pre-conditions, which together delineate when the estimate is trustworthy. It stops short of an explicit when-to-use-this-versus-that contrast, so the agent must infer the decision rule among alternatives.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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