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vikranthviki

Causal Decision Agent

by vikranthviki

manski_bounds

Read-only

Compute worst-case bounds on average treatment effect (ATE) to obtain an interval estimate when point identification is not possible. Use when you need causal inference under weak assumptions.

Instructions

Compute Manski (1990) worst-case bounds on ATE. Validation: validated evidence tier (known-truth, reference, external-parity, or Monte Carlo artifact). Assumptions: Only weak (set-identifying) assumptions are imposed; the result is an interval, not a point; Lee bounds add monotonicity of selection; Oster's delta adds proportional selection on observed vs. unobserved. Pre-conditions: The data needed for the point-identifying analysis, plus the weakest credible identifying restriction; For Lee bounds: a binary selection/attrition indicator. Failure modes: Bounds are too wide to be informative -> Add a credible auxiliary restriction (monotone treatment response, instrument) to tighten the bounds. Alternatives: sp.oster_delta, sp.lee_bounds, sp.manski_bounds. Typical minimum N: 100.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
yYesOutcome variable.
alphaNoSignificance level for confidence intervals and tests.
treatYesBinary treatment variable (0/1).
detailNoPayload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip.agent
y_lowerNoKnown lower bound of the outcome. If None, uses observed min.
y_upperNoKnown upper bound of the outcome. If None, uses observed max.
as_handleNoIf true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running.
data_pathYesAbsolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://.
result_idNoOptional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns.
assumptionNoAdditional assumption: - 'none': no assumptions (widest bounds) - 'mtr': Monotone Treatment Response (Y(1) >= Y(0) for all) - 'mts': Monotone Treatment Selection (selection on levels)none
n_bootstrapNoNumber of bootstrap replications.
data_columnsNoOptional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads.
random_stateNoRandom seed or RandomState for reproducible stochastic steps.
data_sample_nNoOptional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv0.1.0

TDQS

A4.2/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The annotations only indicate readOnlyHint=true, so the description carries most of the behavioral burden. It does this well by disclosing that the output is an interval, that only weak assumptions are imposed, that bounds may be too wide, and that additional restrictions like monotone treatment response can tighten them. It does not contradict the read-only annotation.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is compact and front-loads the core purpose before moving to assumptions, preconditions, failure modes, and alternatives. Every section has a purpose. The 'Validation: validated evidence tier...' line is somewhat boilerplate-like, but it does not materially bloat the description.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the 14 parameters, an output schema, and read-only annotations, the description covers the important contextual gaps: what identification strategy is used, that the result is an interval, when bounds are uninformative, what alternatives exist, and a minimum N guideline. The output schema handles return-value details, so no major missing element blocks correct invocation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the parameters are already well documented in the schema. The description adds high-level context around assumptions and constraints rather than restating parameter meanings, which is appropriate for this coverage level. It does add a useful hint about binary selection/attrition indicators, but this is mostly relevant to Lee bounds rather than this tool.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Compute Manski (1990) worst-case bounds on ATE.' It further clarifies that the result is an interval rather than a point, which sharply distinguishes it from point-identifying estimators. It also names the related Lee and Oster bounds, so an agent can tell them apart without inspecting schemas.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides meaningful context: only weak set-identifying assumptions are imposed, bounds may be too wide, and alternatives such as Lee bounds and Oster's delta are called out with their distinguishing assumptions. It does not state an explicit 'use this when... / use that when...' rule, but the preconditions and failure-mode guidance make selection reasonably clear.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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