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vikranthviki

Causal Decision Agent

by vikranthviki

bcf_factor_exposure

Read-only

Estimate causal effects of high-dimensional exposures by compressing them into PCA factors and fitting Bayesian causal forests per factor, handling unconfoundedness and overlap.

Instructions

BCF on PCA-factor scores of a high-dimensional exposure vector (arXiv:2601.16595, 2026). Compresses exposures via SVD or user-supplied loadings, then fits one BCF per factor. Validation: validated evidence tier (known-truth, reference, external-parity, or Monte Carlo artifact). Assumptions: Unconfoundedness and overlap; The BART/forest priors are appropriate for the outcome scale. Pre-conditions: Covariates, treatment, and outcome; a propensity model is fit internally to limit regularization-induced confounding. Failure modes: MCMC diagnostics fail to converge, or estimates are sensitive to the prior -> Increase draws/tuning, re-scale the outcome, and report posterior diagnostics. Alternatives: sp.dml, sp.auto_cate, sp.causal_forest. Typical minimum N: 250.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
yYesOutcome variable column name or outcome array.
alphaNoSignificance level for confidence intervals and tests.
detailNoPayload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip.agent
binarizeNobinarize parameter (str).median
loadingsNoloadings parameter (DataFrame).
as_handleNoIf true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running.
data_pathYesAbsolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://.
exposuresYesexposures parameter (list).
n_factorsNoNumber of factors.
result_idNoOptional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns.
covariatesYesCovariate matrix, DataFrame, or column names.
n_bootstrapNoNumber of bootstrap replications.
data_columnsNoOptional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads.
data_sample_nNoOptional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv0.1.0

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint=true and openWorldHint=false. The description goes well beyond these by disclosing failure modes (MCMC diagnostics failing, prior sensitivity), validation tiers, internal propensity model fitting, and diagnostics recommendations. It also mentions the compression via SVD or loadings, which is a behavioral detail not in annotations. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured with labeled sections (Validation, Assumptions, Pre-conditions, Failure modes, Alternatives, Typical minimum N). It is concise for the complexity, each sentence adds value, and the core purpose is front-loaded. No wasted words.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The description covers purpose, validation, assumptions, pre-conditions, failure modes, alternatives, and typical sample size. Given the tool's complexity (14 parameters) and that an output schema exists, this is complete for an agent to decide when to call and what to expect. It does not explain return values, but the output schema covers that.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so all parameters have descriptions. The tool description adds minor context: it mentions 'user-supplied loadings' and 'SVD' which clarifies the 'loadings' parameter, and 'PCA-factor scores' clarifies 'n_factors'. However, it does not deeply elaborate on each parameter beyond what the schema provides, so the baseline of 3 is appropriate.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: it applies BCF to PCA-factor scores of a high-dimensional exposure vector, using SVD or user-supplied loadings, then fits one BCF per factor. This distinguishes it from siblings like bcf, bcf_longitudinal, and bcf_ordinal, which likely handle different structures. The verb 'fits' and resource 'BCF' are specific.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides pre-conditions (covariates, treatment, outcome), assumptions (unconfoundedness, overlap), and typical minimum N. It lists alternatives (sp.dml, sp.auto_cate, sp.causal_forest) but does not explicitly contrast with the bcf family (e.g., when to use bcf vs bcf_factor_exposure). This is a minor gap but the intended use case is implied by the title.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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