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vikranthviki

Causal Decision Agent

by vikranthviki

bcf_ordinal

Read-only

Estimate cumulative dose-response curves for ordered or dose-level treatments by chaining Bayesian causal forests between consecutive levels, accounting for confounding.

Instructions

Bayesian Causal Forest for ordered / dose-level treatment (Zorzetto et al. 2026). Estimates cumulative dose-response curves via chained BCF between consecutive levels. Assumptions: Unconfoundedness and overlap; The BART/forest priors are appropriate for the outcome scale. Pre-conditions: Covariates, treatment, and outcome; a propensity model is fit internally to limit regularization-induced confounding. Failure modes: MCMC diagnostics fail to converge, or estimates are sensitive to the prior -> Increase draws/tuning, re-scale the outcome, and report posterior diagnostics. Alternatives: sp.dml, sp.auto_cate, sp.causal_forest. Typical minimum N: 250.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
yYesOutcome variable column name or outcome array.
alphaNoSignificance level for confidence intervals and tests.
treatYesTreatment indicator or first-treatment-period column.
detailNoPayload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip.agent
n_foldsNoNumber of cross-fitting or cross-validation folds.
baselineNobaseline parameter (str).
as_handleNoIf true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running.
data_pathYesAbsolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://.
result_idNoOptional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns.
covariatesYesCovariate matrix, DataFrame, or column names.
n_trees_muNoNumber of trees mu.
n_bootstrapNoNumber of bootstrap replications.
n_trees_tauNoNumber of trees tau.
data_columnsNoOptional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads.
random_stateNoRandom seed or RandomState for reproducible stochastic steps.
data_sample_nNoOptional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv0.1.0

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint=true, so the agent knows this is a read-only estimation call. The description adds valuable behavioral context beyond annotations: it discloses that a propensity model is fit internally to limit regularization-induced confounding, that MCMC diagnostics may fail to converge, and that estimates may be prior-sensitive. It also describes the chained-BCF estimation strategy. It does not detail output structure, but the output schema exists and the detail parameter covers payload depth.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense but well-organized with labeled sections (Assumptions, Pre-conditions, Failure modes, Alternatives, Typical minimum N). Every sentence carries information. It is somewhat long, but the complexity of a BCF tool with MCMC diagnostics justifies the length. The most important identifying information (ordered/dose-level, cumulative dose-response) is front-loaded.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (16 params, MCMC, BCF), the description covers the key contextual needs: what it estimates, assumptions, pre-conditions, failure modes, alternatives, and sample size guidance. The output schema and detail parameter handle return-value expectations. It could be more complete with explicit guidance on which parameters to tune when diagnostics fail, but the failure-mode section already points to draws/tuning and outcome rescaling.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the schema already documents all 16 parameters. The description adds context for the treatment variable (ordered/dose-level) and mentions internal propensity fitting, which helps interpret treat and covariates. However, it does not add meaning beyond the schema for most parameters (e.g., n_trees_mu, n_trees_tau, n_bootstrap, alpha, baseline). Baseline 3 is appropriate given full schema coverage.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly identifies the tool as a Bayesian Causal Forest for ordered/dose-level treatment, specifies the method (chained BCF between consecutive levels), and states the estimand (cumulative dose-response curves). It distinguishes itself from siblings like bcf, bcf_factor_exposure, bcf_longitudinal, and causal_forest by the ordered/dose-level focus.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit pre-conditions (covariates, treatment, outcome; propensity model fit internally), assumptions (unconfoundedness, overlap, BART priors appropriate), and failure-mode guidance (increase draws/tuning, re-scale outcome, report diagnostics). It names alternatives (sp.dml, sp.auto_cate, sp.causal_forest) and gives a minimum N of 250. It does not explicitly state when NOT to use this tool versus those alternatives, but the context is strong.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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