horowitz_manski
Compute set-identified causal effect bounds conditioning on covariates when point identification is not credible, returning an interval under weak assumptions.
Instructions
Horowitz-Manski (2000) bounds conditioning on covariates. Validation: validated evidence tier (known-truth, reference, external-parity, or Monte Carlo artifact). Assumptions: Only weak (set-identifying) assumptions are imposed; the result is an interval, not a point; Lee bounds add monotonicity of selection; Oster's delta adds proportional selection on observed vs. unobserved. Pre-conditions: The data needed for the point-identifying analysis, plus the weakest credible identifying restriction; For Lee bounds: a binary selection/attrition indicator. Failure modes: Bounds are too wide to be informative -> Add a credible auxiliary restriction (monotone treatment response, instrument) to tighten the bounds. Alternatives: sp.oster_delta, sp.lee_bounds, sp.manski_bounds. Typical minimum N: 100.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| y | Yes | Outcome variable. | |
| alpha | No | Significance level for confidence intervals and tests. | |
| detail | No | Payload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip. | agent |
| n_boot | No | Bootstrap replications. | |
| y_lower | No | Known lower bound of Y. Defaults to observed min. | |
| y_upper | No | Known upper bound of Y. Defaults to observed max. | |
| as_handle | No | If true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running. | |
| data_path | Yes | Absolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://. | |
| result_id | No | Optional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns. | |
| treatment | Yes | Binary treatment variable (0/1). | |
| covariates | Yes | Covariates to condition on (discretised via quartiles for continuous variables). | |
| data_columns | No | Optional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads. | |
| random_state | No | Random seed or RandomState for reproducible stochastic steps. | |
| data_sample_n | No | Optional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels. |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
No arguments | |||