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vikranthviki

Causal Decision Agent

by vikranthviki

rdit

Read-only

Estimates the causal impact of a policy or event at a known time cutoff using regression discontinuity, comparing outcomes on either side to isolate the treatment effect.

Instructions

Regression Discontinuity in Time (Hausman & Rapson, 2018). Assumptions: Conditional expectations of potential outcomes are continuous at the cutoff; Units cannot precisely manipulate the running variable around the cutoff (no sorting); For fuzzy designs: monotonicity of treatment take-up at the cutoff. Pre-conditions: A continuous running/forcing variable with a known cutoff that (sharply or fuzzily) assigns treatment; Enough observations in a neighbourhood of the cutoff to fit a local polynomial. Failure modes: Density of the running variable jumps at the cutoff (manipulation / sorting) -> Run a McCrary / density test (rdplotdensity); if manipulation is present the design is invalid near the cutoff; Estimate swings with the bandwidth -- results are not robust -> Report a bandwidth-sensitivity curve and use a data-driven MSE-optimal bandwidth. Alternatives: sp.rdrobust, sp.rdrandinf, sp.rdbwselect. Typical minimum N: 500.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
hNoBandwidth in the same units as the numeric time axis (days if datetime). If None, an MSE-optimal bandwidth is selected automatically.
pNoLocal polynomial order (1 = local linear).
yYesOutcome variable name.
timeYesTime variable name (datetime or numeric).
alphaNoSignificance level for confidence intervals.
donutNoDonut hole: exclude observations within +/- donut units of the cutoff (in the same numeric time units).
cutoffYesThe policy change date / time cutoff.
detailNoPayload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip.agent
kernelNoKernel function: 'triangular', 'epanechnikov', 'uniform', or 'gaussian'.triangular
clusterNoCluster variable for clustered standard errors. If provided, cluster-robust SEs are used instead of HAC.
as_handleNoIf true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running.
data_pathYesAbsolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://.
result_idNoOptional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns.
seasonalityNoDeseasonalise before estimation. One of 'month', 'quarter', 'dow' (day-of-week). Regresses Y on seasonal dummies and uses residuals.
data_columnsNoOptional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads.
data_sample_nNoOptional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv0.1.0

TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations only declare readOnlyHint, so safety is already covered; the description adds value by documenting failure modes (density jumps at cutoff -> rdplotdensity; bandwidth sensitivity -> MSE-optimal bandwidth) and typical minimum N. This tells the agent how the estimator behaves and what diagnostics matter, though it does not spell out the exact output payload.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Dense but purposeful: assumptions, pre-conditions, failure modes, alternatives, and minimum N each add selection/reasoning value. No markdown structure, but the sentences are front-loaded with the method name and are not redundant with the schema.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a complex econometric estimator with 16 params and an output schema, the description covers statistical assumptions, preconditions, common failure modes, alternative tools, and minimum sample size. It does not need to describe return values because an output schema is present.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the schema already carries parameter meaning. The description adds little parameter-specific detail; the only echo is the bandwidth-sensitivity discussion aligning with h, which does not materially extend the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with the method name 'Regression Discontinuity in Time (Hausman & Rapson, 2018)', which identifies the estimator and the design family, and it names sibling alternatives (sp.rdrobust, sp.rdrandinf, sp.rdbwselect) so an agent can disambiguate. It lacks an explicit verb like 'estimates', so it does not fully meet the 5-level bar.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit pre-conditions (continuous running variable, known cutoff, enough observations) and assumptions (continuity, no sorting, monotonicity for fuzzy designs). Lists alternatives and failure-mode remedies, but does not state explicit exclusion criteria such as 'use rdrobust for non-time running variables'.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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