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vikranthviki

Causal Decision Agent

by vikranthviki

qqsynth

Read-only

Estimate treatment effects by building a quantile-matched synthetic control from donor units, comparing observed vs counterfactual outcomes after intervention.

Instructions

Quantile Synthetic Control (alias for DiSCo with method='quantile'). Assumptions: A convex (or regularized) combination of donor units reproduces the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome path; No interference: the treatment does not affect the donor units (SUTVA); No anticipation before the treatment date. Pre-conditions: Panel of one or more treated units plus an untreated donor pool, observed over time; Pre-treatment window long enough to fit donor weights (rule of thumb: more pre-periods than donors used); Outcome observed for every unit in every period. Failure modes: Large pre-treatment RMSPE -- the synthetic unit fails to track the treated unit before treatment -> Add donors / predictors, lengthen the pre-period, or use a bias-corrected estimator (sdid, augsynth); Placebo / permutation inference shows the estimate is not extreme relative to donors -> Report the placebo distribution honestly; the effect may not be distinguishable from noise. Alternatives: sp.sdid, sp.augsynth, sp.gsynth, sp.callaway_santanna. Typical minimum N: 15.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
seedNoRandom seed.
timeYesTime period column.
unitYesUnit identifier column.
alphaNoSignificance level.
detailNoPayload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip.agent
outcomeYesOutcome variable column.
placeboNoRun placebo permutation inference.
as_handleNoIf true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running.
data_pathYesAbsolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://.
result_idNoOptional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns.
n_quantilesNoNumber of quantile grid points.
data_columnsNoOptional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads.
treated_unitYesIdentifier of the treated unit.
data_sample_nNoOptional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels.
treatment_timeYesFirst treatment period (inclusive).

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv0.1.0

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With readOnlyHint=true already covering safety, the description adds rich behavioral context: SUTVA and no-anticipation assumptions, the convex-combination identification mechanism, failure modes, and practical rules about pre-period length and donor counts. It also tells users how to interpret and report non-extreme placebo results.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense but efficiently organized into assumptions, pre-conditions, failure modes, alternatives, and minimum N. The opening sentence front-loads the tool's identity, and each section adds distinct decision-relevant value without repeating schema content.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a high-complexity estimator with an output schema already present, the description covers validity conditions, common failure modes, corrective actions, alternative tools, and sample-size guidance. No critical information needed to decide whether to call qqsynth and interpret its results is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so every parameter already has its own description and defaults. The prose reinforces method-level constraints such as needing more pre-periods than donors, but it does not add specific detail for parameters like n_quantiles, seed, or detail, so the baseline of 3 is appropriate.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The first sentence identifies qqsynth as the quantile variant of DiSCo, making the estimator and its scope evident. This clearly distinguishes it from siblings like synth, discos, and sdid by naming the exact method and alias.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description states concrete pre-conditions for when the tool is appropriate: panel structure, pre-treatment window length, and complete outcomes. Failure modes explicitly route to alternatives, such as using sdid or augsynth when pre-treatment RMSPE is large, and warn when placebo inference indicates the effect may be noise.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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