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vikranthviki

Causal Decision Agent

by vikranthviki

mc_synth

Read-only

Estimate causal treatment effects using matrix-completion synthetic controls, with placebo tests and pre-treatment fit diagnostics.

Instructions

Matrix Completion Synthetic Control Method. Assumptions: A convex (or regularized) combination of donor units reproduces the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome path; No interference: the treatment does not affect the donor units (SUTVA); No anticipation before the treatment date. Pre-conditions: Panel of one or more treated units plus an untreated donor pool, observed over time; Pre-treatment window long enough to fit donor weights (rule of thumb: more pre-periods than donors used); Outcome observed for every unit in every period. Failure modes: Large pre-treatment RMSPE -- the synthetic unit fails to track the treated unit before treatment -> Add donors / predictors, lengthen the pre-period, or use a bias-corrected estimator (sdid, augsynth); Placebo / permutation inference shows the estimate is not extreme relative to donors -> Report the placebo distribution honestly; the effect may not be distinguishable from noise. Alternatives: sp.sdid, sp.augsynth, sp.gsynth, sp.callaway_santanna. Typical minimum N: 15.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
tolNoConvergence tolerance (relative change in Frobenius norm).
seedNoRandom seed for reproducibility.
timeYesTime period column.
unitYesUnit identifier column.
alphaNoSignificance level for confidence intervals.
detailNoPayload depth: 'minimal' (~150 tokens) for sub-step calls where only the point estimate is needed; 'standard' (~1K tokens) for diagnostics + coefficient table; 'agent' (~2K tokens, default) adds violations / next_steps / suggested_functions so the LLM can plan its next call without another round-trip.agent
outcomeYesOutcome variable name.
placeboNoRun placebo (permutation) inference by treating each control unit as if it were treated.
cv_foldsNoNumber of CV folds for automatic lambda selection.
max_iterNoMaximum Soft-Impute iterations.
as_handleNoIf true, cache the fitted result on the server and return result_id + result_uri alongside the JSON payload so a subsequent tools/call can chain without re-running.
data_pathYesAbsolute path or URL to a data file. Supported: .csv / .tsv / .txt (delimited), .parquet / .pq, .feather / .arrow, .xlsx / .xls, .dta (Stata), .json / .jsonl. Schemes: file://, s3://, gs://, https://.
result_idNoOptional handle to a previously-fitted result (returned by an earlier call when as_handle=true). Tools that operate on a fitted object accept this in place of re-supplying data_path + columns.
covariatesNoTime-varying covariates to partial out before matrix completion.
lambda_regNoNuclear norm penalty. If ``None`` (default), selected automatically via cross-validation on observed entries.
data_columnsNoOptional column projection. Parquet/Feather/Stata loaders honour this for fast partial reads.
treated_unitYesIdentifier of the treated unit.
data_sample_nNoOptional uniform random subsample size (seed=0, deterministic) — useful on huge panels.
treatment_timeYesFirst treatment period (inclusive).

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv0.1.0

TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, and the description adds valuable behavioral context: assumptions (SUTVA, no anticipation), pre-conditions, failure modes, and typical minimum N. It does not contradict the annotations and adds transparency about convergence/tracking failures and placebo inference caveats.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with labeled sections (Assumptions, Pre-conditions, Failure modes, Alternatives, Typical minimum N). Each section earns its place by informing tool selection and invocation, though the opening is a noun phrase rather than a concise actionable statement.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given an output schema exists and schema coverage is 100%, the description does not need to explain return values or every parameter. It covers assumptions, preconditions, failure modes, and alternatives, which is strong contextual support for an agent deciding whether and how to invoke this tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the schema carries the parameter documentation burden. The description adds conceptual context (donor units, pre-treatment window, RMSPE) but does not describe specific parameter syntax, defaults, or how parameters map to the method's inputs. This is acceptable given full schema coverage but adds limited parameter-level value.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description identifies the method as 'Matrix Completion Synthetic Control Method' and provides assumptions that imply it estimates treatment effects using donor units to construct a counterfactual. However, it lacks an explicit verb phrase such as 'estimates the causal effect of a treatment on a treated unit', and it does not clearly differentiate itself from siblings beyond listing alternative names.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit pre-conditions (panel structure, pre-treatment window, complete outcome data) and lists alternatives. It also gives conditional guidance in failure modes, e.g., when pre-treatment RMSPE is large it suggests sdid/augsynth. It stops short of explicitly saying 'use this tool when X and not when Y', but the context is largely inferable.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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