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metaculus_question_forecast_history

Retrieve historical forecast aggregation data for a Metaculus question by its ID, with options for recency-weighted, unweighted, or single aggregation methods.

Instructions

Metaculus question forecast history. Returns public aggregation forecast history points for one Metaculus question from credential-free public page data. The method enum accepts recency_weighted, unweighted, and single_aggregation.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
idYesMetaculus question or post id
max_pointsNoMaximum history points to return, default 500, max 2000
methodNoAggregation method
Behavior3/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no annotations, the description carries the burden. It states the tool is read-only and public, but lacks details on rate limits, error handling, or pagination. Adequate but not comprehensive.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Two concise sentences, front-loaded with purpose, no unnecessary words. Efficiently communicates core functionality.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness3/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a tool with 3 params and no output schema, the description covers purpose and method enum but leaves out information on the structure of returned history points, which may require clarification for proper interpretation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so baseline is 3. Description lists the allowed values for 'method' but adds no new meaning beyond the schema's parameter descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the verb 'returns' and resource 'forecast history points' for a specific Metaculus question, distinguishing it from related tools like metaculus_question_forecasts or metaculus_question_metadata.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines2/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

No explicit guidance on when to use this tool versus alternatives such as metaculus_question_forecasts. It only mentions 'credential-free public page data' but does not specify conditions or exclusions.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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