predict_market_trajectory
Forecast a DCPI market's near-term trajectory (1-8 quarters) to see if it trends toward BUILD or AVOID. Projects excess power and constraint scores with confidence bands that widen over time.
Instructions
Forecast a DCPI market's near-term trajectory (next 1-8 quarters). Projects excess_power_score and constraint_score forward with confidence bands that WIDEN with horizon, from DC Hub's daily DCPI snapshot history — the only source that can, because it owns the time-series. Use to answer "is this market trending toward BUILD or AVOID?" or "will Dallas power stay tight over the next 6 months?". Params: market_slug (required, metro slug e.g. dallas, phoenix, northern-virginia — valid slugs come from rank_markets / get_market_dcpi_rank); horizon_quarters (optional 1-8, default 4; 2 = ~6 months out). Returns {market_slug, method, basis{history_points, history_span_days, slope_per_day, trend}, horizon_quarters, projection[{quarter_out, excess_power_score, excess_power_band, constraint_score, constraint_band}], caveat, snapshot_record}. HONEST: linear trend extrapolation, NOT a guarantee — bands widen with horizon and short history; needs >=3 daily snapshots or it declines. Do NOT use for a single point-in-time verdict (use get_market_dcpi_rank) or to rank many markets (use rank_markets).
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| market_slug | No | Market slug (metro), e.g. dallas, phoenix, northern-virginia — valid slugs come from rank_markets / get_market_dcpi_rank | |
| horizon_quarters | No | Forecast horizon in quarters (1-8, default 4); 2 = ~6 months ahead |