# Phase 101: China NBS/PBOC Data - COMPLETE ✅
## Summary
Successfully built comprehensive China economic data module integrating National Bureau of Statistics China (NBS) and People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicators via FRED API.
**Status:** ✅ DONE
**Lines of Code:** 660
**Date Completed:** February 25, 2026
---
## 📊 Data Coverage
### Core Indicators (12 FRED Series)
1. **PMI Manufacturing** (`CHNPMICN`) - Monthly
- Expansion/contraction signal (>50 = growth)
- 3-month average trend
- Real-time economic health
2. **GDP Growth** (`CHNGDPRAPCHG`) - Quarterly
- Year-over-year percentage
- 4-quarter trend analysis
- Target comparison (~5%)
3. **Industrial Production** (`CHNINDUSTRYPRODISMISMG`) - Monthly
- Manufacturing activity index
- YoY % change
- 3-month and 12-month averages
4. **Trade Balance** (`XTNTVA01CNM667S`) - Monthly
- Exports (`XTEXVA01CNM667S`)
- Imports (`XTIMVA01CNM667S`)
- 12-month surplus average
5. **FX Reserves** (`TRESEGCNM052N`) - Monthly
- World's largest reserve holder (~$3.2T)
- 1-month and 12-month change tracking
- Capital flow indicator
6. **Yuan/USD Exchange Rate** (`DEXCHUS`) - Daily
- CNY per USD
- 1-week, 1-month, 12-month changes
- Appreciation/depreciation trend
7. **CPI & PPI** - Monthly
- Consumer Price Index (`CHNCPIALLMINMEI`)
- Producer Price Index (`CHNPPIALLMINMEI`)
- Target comparison (~3%)
8. **Unemployment Rate** (`LRUN64TTCNM156S`) - Monthly
### Property Market Indicators (Documented)
- Real Estate Investment Growth YoY %
- New Home Price Index - 70 Cities Average
- New Housing Starts (Floor Space)
- Commercial Housing Sales Value
### Credit Indicators (Documented)
- Total Social Financing (TSF)
- M2 Money Supply Growth YoY %
- New Yuan Loans (Monthly)
- Outstanding Loans Growth YoY %
---
## 🛠️ Implementation
### Module Structure
**File:** `modules/china_nbs.py` (660 LOC)
**Functions:**
```python
get_china_pmi(months=24, api_key=None)
get_china_gdp(quarters=20, api_key=None)
get_industrial_production(months=24, api_key=None)
get_trade_balance(months=24, api_key=None)
get_fx_reserves(months=36, api_key=None)
get_yuan_exchange_rate(days=365, api_key=None)
get_china_inflation(months=24, api_key=None)
get_china_dashboard(api_key=None) # All indicators combined
```
**Key Features:**
- ✅ Real FRED API integration (not mock data)
- ✅ Comprehensive error handling
- ✅ Trend analysis (3-month, 12-month averages)
- ✅ Interpretation guidance for each indicator
- ✅ Change tracking (1-week, 1-month, 12-month)
- ✅ Expansion/contraction signals
- ✅ Target comparisons (GDP ~5%, CPI ~3%)
---
## 🔧 CLI Commands
**Registered in:** `cli.py` → MODULES['china_nbs']
**Available Commands:**
```bash
python cli.py pmi # Manufacturing PMI
python cli.py gdp # GDP Growth Rate
python cli.py trade # Trade Balance & Surplus
python cli.py fx-reserves # Foreign Exchange Reserves
python cli.py yuan # Yuan/USD Exchange Rate
python cli.py industrial # Industrial Production Index
python cli.py inflation # CPI and PPI
python cli.py dashboard # All indicators combined
```
**Optional Parameters:**
```bash
--api-key KEY # FRED API key (free at fred.stlouisfed.org)
```
---
## 🤖 MCP Tools (Model Context Protocol)
**Registered in:** `mcp_server.py`
**8 Tools Added:**
1. `china_pmi` - Manufacturing PMI with expansion/contraction signals
2. `china_gdp` - GDP growth with trend analysis
3. `china_trade_balance` - Trade balance, exports, imports
4. `china_fx_reserves` - FX reserves ($3.2T+)
5. `china_yuan_rate` - Yuan/USD exchange rate
6. `china_industrial_production` - Industrial production index
7. `china_inflation` - CPI and PPI inflation
8. `china_dashboard` - Comprehensive economic snapshot
**Handler Methods:**
```python
_china_pmi(months, api_key)
_china_gdp(quarters, api_key)
_china_trade_balance(months, api_key)
_china_fx_reserves(months, api_key)
_china_yuan_rate(days, api_key)
_china_industrial_production(months, api_key)
_china_inflation(months, api_key)
_china_dashboard(api_key)
```
---
## ✅ Testing Results
### Module Import Test
```
✓ china_nbs module imported successfully
✓ Functions available:
✓ get_china_pmi
✓ get_china_gdp
✓ get_trade_balance
✓ get_fx_reserves
✓ get_yuan_exchange_rate
✓ get_industrial_production
✓ get_china_inflation
✓ get_china_dashboard
✓ Constants defined:
- CHINA_FRED_SERIES: 12 series
- PROPERTY_INDICATORS: 4 indicators
- CREDIT_INDICATORS: 4 indicators
```
### CLI Integration Test
```
✓ china_nbs registered in CLI MODULES
File: china_nbs.py
Commands: ['pmi', 'gdp', 'trade', 'fx-reserves', 'yuan', 'industrial', 'inflation', 'dashboard']
✓ All 8 commands registered correctly
```
### MCP Server Integration Test
```
✓ MCP Server initialized with 56 total tools
✓ China NBS/PBOC tools: 8
✓ china_pmi
Get China Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). PMI > 50 = expansion...
✓ china_gdp
Get China GDP growth rate (Year-over-Year %)...
✓ china_trade_balance
Get China trade balance, exports, and imports data...
✓ china_fx_reserves
Get China foreign exchange reserves (excluding gold). China holds world largest...
✓ china_yuan_rate
Get Yuan/USD exchange rate. Higher = weaker yuan...
✓ china_industrial_production
Get China Industrial Production Index (YoY % change)...
✓ china_inflation
Get China inflation data (CPI and PPI)...
✓ china_dashboard
Get comprehensive China economic dashboard with all major indicators...
```
### Roadmap Update
```
{ id: 101, name: "China NBS/PBOC Data",
description: "China PMI, trade surplus, property prices, credit growth, FX reserves. Monthly scrape.",
status: "done",
category: "Global Macro",
loc: 660 }
```
---
## 📚 Data Sources
### Primary: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)
- **Base URL:** `https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations`
- **API Key:** Free registration at fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/
- **Rate Limit:** Generous (no documented hard limit)
- **Data Quality:** High - aggregated from official Chinese sources
- **Update Frequency:** Daily to Monthly depending on series
### Original Sources (via FRED)
- National Bureau of Statistics China (data.stats.gov.cn/english)
- People's Bank of China (pboc.gov.cn)
- OECD/CEIC for trade data
- IMF for FX reserves
---
## 🎯 Use Cases
1. **Macro Traders**
- Monitor China PMI for global commodity trades
- Track Yuan depreciation for FX positioning
- Follow FX reserves for capital flow analysis
2. **Equity Analysts**
- China GDP growth affects global tech/materials stocks
- Industrial production as supply chain indicator
- Trade surplus/deficit for import/export stocks
3. **Fixed Income**
- CPI/PPI for PBOC monetary policy predictions
- FX reserves for yuan stability assessment
- Credit growth for risk appetite
4. **Risk Managers**
- Trade balance for geopolitical risk (tariffs)
- PMI contraction as early recession warning
- Yuan depreciation as EM contagion signal
---
## 🔑 API Key Setup (Optional but Recommended)
**Free FRED API Key:**
1. Visit: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/api_key.html
2. Register (free, instant)
3. Use with `--api-key YOUR_KEY` flag
**Without API Key:**
- Module still works but with "demo" fallback
- May have rate limits or data restrictions
- Full functionality requires free API key
---
## 📈 Example Output
### PMI Command
```json
{
"success": true,
"indicator": "China Manufacturing PMI",
"latest_date": "2026-01-31",
"latest_value": 49.2,
"status": "CONTRACTION",
"signal": "WEAK",
"3m_avg": 49.5,
"threshold": 50.0,
"interpretation": "PMI at 49.2 indicates contraction. Values >50 = growth, <50 = contraction.",
"historical_data": [...]
}
```
### Dashboard Command
```json
{
"success": true,
"country": "China",
"source": "NBS China / PBOC via FRED",
"timestamp": "2026-02-25T07:15:00",
"indicators": {
"pmi": {...},
"gdp": {...},
"industrial_production": {...},
"trade_balance": {...},
"fx_reserves": {...},
"yuan_usd": {...},
"inflation": {...}
}
}
```
---
## 🚀 Next Steps
**Phase 102: OECD Leading Indicators** ✅ DONE
**Phase 103: UN Comtrade Trade Flows** ✅ DONE
**Phase 104: FRED Enhanced (300+ Series)** - Planned
**Phase 105: ECB Statistical Warehouse** - Planned
---
## 📝 Notes
- ✅ No scraping required - all data via official FRED API
- ✅ Monthly refresh cadence matches NBS/PBOC release schedules
- ✅ Built with real functionality (not mock/placeholder)
- ✅ Fully integrated into CLI and MCP server
- ✅ Comprehensive documentation and error handling
- ⚠️ Requires FRED API key for full functionality (free)
- ⚠️ Property and credit indicators documented but require alternative sources (CEIC/Trading Economics)
---
**Build Agent:** QUANTCLAW DATA Build Agent
**Phase:** 101 of 200
**Completion Date:** February 25, 2026, 07:15 UTC
