Kalshi macro: Fed rate odds, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin edges, 15-min markets, Kelly sizing.
Scored across 10 tools
Each tool maps to a mostly distinct workflow: odds conversion, EV calculation, Kelly sizing, macro regime, Fed odds, commodity edge, perp data/liquidation, short-horizon boards, and base-rate comparison. There is minor conceptual adjacency between calculate_ev, base_rate_gap, and commodity_edge, and fifteen_min_board overlaps with commodity_edge on short-term bitcoin, but the inputs and outputs are clearly differentiated.
All names use consistent snake_case and are descriptively tied to their domain. The only minor deviation is grammatical style: calculate_ev and convert_probability are verb-led, while the rest are noun phrases.
Ten tools is well-scoped for a multi-domain macro, commodities, and prediction-market desk. Each tool covers a distinct analytical function, and none feels redundant or padded.
The set covers a strong decision-support lifecycle: base rates, EV, sizing, probability conversion, macro regime, Fed odds, commodity edges, perp data, and liquidation estimates. Minor gaps remain around generic market search/quote lookup and portfolio or position tracking, but core analytical workflows are covered.
Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.
Inputs: baseRateId, marketPrice, baseRateValue.
Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi, Polymarket US or Novig price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read, with that venue's fee.
Inputs: venue, marketPrice, novigMarket, venuePrices, +1 more. Returns: signal, edge_pp, sources, edge_pct, +8 more
Use for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal". The Kalshi daily gold, silver or WTI strike, or hourly bitcoin strike, with the largest PMP model edge, as a ticket: side, entry price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, tier and quarter-Kelly size. Pass tickers[] to check a watchlist. Pro — sign in with PredictionMarketsPicks, or a Pro API key.
Inputs: tickers, commodity.
Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
Inputs: value, format. Returns: sources, tell_user, timestamp, needs_input, +5 more
Use for "will the Fed cut, hold or hike" and "next FOMC meeting odds". Live Kalshi odds for each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting: the next meeting's full strike breakdown and days-until, the rate path, the current fed funds rate, and a next-meeting cross-venue check against Polymarket and CME futures, with the gap in pp.
Inputs: horizon. Returns: sources, by_venue, tell_user, timestamp, +7 more
Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series (crypto, metals, energy, FX): window status, YES price, close time, target, settlement source and the up rate over the last 96 windows; the same window on Polymarket international for BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP; and our live Bitcoin top-of-hour strategy with its record.
Inputs: limit, series, horizon, open_only, +1 more. Returns: rows, as_of, sources, our_model, +5 more
Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a Kalshi, Polymarket US or Novig contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".
Inputs: venue, bankroll, fraction, marketPrice, +2 more. Returns: rating, sources, tell_user, timestamp, +6 more
The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). Returns the composite, the regime call and 2 category scores without an account, 4 to a signed-in account, and all six with Pro. Use for "how is the US economy", "macro regime", "risk-on or risk-off".
Inputs: topic.
Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters (a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the exact one. Assets: btc, eth, sol, xrp, doge, hype, link, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Free.
Inputs: side, asset, entry, margin, +2 more.
Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset ("btc", "gold") for one.
Inputs: asset, limit. Returns: rows, as_of, sources, tell_user, +4 more
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Kalshi 15-minute crypto markets, perps funding, liquidation math and bitcoin model edges.
Live Kalshi and Polymarket data: EV edges, cross-venue arbitrage, markets, and whale trades.
Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates.
Independent quant layer: fee-adjusted edge, Kelly, combos, best price: Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig
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