Macro & Commodities Desk

Fed Rate Odds (FOMC)

fed_rate_odds

Read-only

Use for "will the Fed cut, hold or hike" and "next FOMC meeting odds". Live Kalshi odds for each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting: the next meeting's full strike breakdown and days-until, the rate path, the current fed funds rate, and a next-meeting cross-venue check against Polymarket and CME futures, with the gap in pp.

Tool call template

This tool declares no required parameters. Add optional parameters from the input schema as needed.

{
  "id": 1,
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "arguments": {},
    "name": "fed_rate_odds"
  }
}

Input Schema

Name	Required	Description	Default
`horizon`	No	Meetings in the rate path (default 3).

Output Schema

Name	Required	Description
`sources`	No
`by_venue`	No	Next-meeting odds by venue (Kalshi, Polymarket, CME futures).
`tell_user`	No	Show this sentence to the user first.
`timestamp`	No
`needs_input`	No
`example_call`	No
`next_meeting`	No	Next FOMC meeting: date, days until, strike breakdown.
`divergence_pp`	No	Headline cross-venue gap for the next meeting, pp.
`data_freshness`	No
`rate_path_2026`	No	Implied outcome at each remaining 2026 meeting.
`current_target_range`	No	Current fed funds target range.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

Changed1 schema field changedNov 4, 2026

addedInput schema / properties / horizon

Added value: +{
+  "description": "Meetings in the rate path (default 3).",
+  "type": [
+    "number",
+    "string",
+    "null"
+  ]
+}

Changed2 schema fields changedOct 24, 2026

removedInput schema / $schema

Removed value: -"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"

removedOutput schema / $schema

Removed value: -"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"

AddedOct 10, 2026

TDQS

A3.9/5.0

Behavior3/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, destructiveHint=false, and openWorldHint=false, so the safety profile is covered. The description adds useful scope detail - live Kalshi source, a Polymarket/CME futures cross-check with gap in pp, and the 2026 meeting window - but says nothing about freshness/latency, licensing, or what happens when a venue lacks data. Useful context, not rich operational disclosure.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

One front-loaded sentence that puts the usage trigger first and the payload description second, with no filler or marketing language. It is dense to the point of being a run-on list, which slightly taxes scanning but wastes no words.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With an output schema present, return values need not be spelled out, and annotations plus a fully documented single parameter cover structure and safety. What remains unaddressed is behavioral edge cases - stale or unavailable venue data, and how the cross-venue gap is computed - which an agent calling this tool could still hit.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100% and the single parameter 'horizon' is documented in-schema as 'Meetings in the rate path (default 3)'. The description never mentions horizon, its default, or valid range, so it adds no meaning beyond the schema; baseline 3 applies.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific resource (Kalshi Fed rate odds for FOMC meetings) and enumerates exactly what comes back: next-meeting strike breakdown, days-until, rate path, current fed funds rate, and a cross-venue gap in pp. This is clearly distinct from siblings like base_rate_gap or market_pulse, which an agent can rule out without opening schemas.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Opens with an explicit trigger phrase set ('will the Fed cut, hold or hike', 'next FOMC meeting odds') that maps user intents to this tool. It does not state when to prefer a sibling such as base_rate_gap for spread analysis or market_pulse for general market state, so the routing is one-sided.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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