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Macro & Commodities Desk

by com.predictionmarketspicks
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Base Rate Gap

base_rate_gap
Read-only

Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
baseRateIdNoKnown base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source). One of: incumbent_reelected · fed_hold_unemp_below_4 · fed_cut_cpi_above_3 · recession_called_12mo · sp500_positive_year · bitcoin_above_100k_eoy · gdp_growth_above_2 · cpi_above_3 · senate_incumbent_wins_primary · vix_below_20_eoy · interest_rate_cut_next_meeting · major_sports_upset.
marketPriceNoCurrent market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
baseRateValueNoYour own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Changed2 schema fields changed
    • removedInput schema / properties / marketPrice / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "type": "number"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "string"
-  }
-]
    • addedInput schema / properties / marketPrice / type
      Added value: +[
+  "number",
+  "string"
+]
  2. Added

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, destructiveHint=false, and openWorldHint=false, so the safety profile is covered. The description adds value by disclosing the return payload — gap in percentage points, a signal, and sample-size quality — which matters since no output schema exists.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Two sentences, front-loaded with the triggering questions before the mechanics, with no filler. The nested quotation marks are slightly awkward but don't impede parsing.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a read-only compute tool with no output schema, the description adequately covers inputs, the identifier-or-value choice, and the shape of the result. It doesn't clarify what happens when marketPrice is omitted despite zero required parameters, a minor gap.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3; the schema already documents baseRateId enums, marketPrice input formats, and baseRateValue ranges in more detail than the description. The only added meaning is the either/or relationship between baseRateId and baseRateValue.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb and resource: 'Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events,' and enumerates the outputs (gap in pp, signal, sample-size quality). That scope is clearly distinguishable from siblings like calculate_ev, kelly_size, or convert_probability, which handle different computations.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Gives explicit user-phrasing triggers ('how does this price compare to history', 'is the market ignoring the base rate') that map a real question to this tool. It stops short of naming alternatives or stating when-not to use it, e.g. versus calculate_ev.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

All Macro & Commodities Desk toolsInspect
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