Macro & Commodities Desk

Convert Probability / Odds

convert_probability

Read-only

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema

Name	Required	Description	Default
`value`	No	The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").
`format`	No	Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema

Name	Required	Description
`sources`	No
`tell_user`	No	Show this sentence to the user first.
`timestamp`	No
`needs_input`	No
`decimal_odds`	No	Decimal odds.
`example_call`	No
`american_odds`	No	American odds, no commas.
`data_freshness`	No
`probability_pct`	No	Implied probability, %.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

Changed2 schema fields changedOct 15, 2026

removedInput schema / properties / value / anyOf

Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "type": "number"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "string"
-  }
-]

addedInput schema / properties / value / type

Added value: +[
+  "number",
+  "string"
+]

Changed1 schema field changedSep 29, 2026

changedOutput schema / (root)

Previous value: -nullNew value: +{
+  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
+  "additionalProperties": {},
+  "properties": {
+    "american_odds": {
+      "description": "American odds, no commas."
+    },
+    "data_freshness": {},
+    "decimal_odds": {
+      "description": "Decimal odds."
+    },
+    "example_call": {},
+    "needs_input": {},
+    "probability_pct": {
+      "description": "Implied probability, %."
+    },
+    "sources": {},
+    "tell_user": {
+      "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
+      "type": "string"
+    },
+    "timestamp": {
+      "type": "string"
+    }
+  },
+  "type": "object"
+}

Changed2 schema fields changedSep 29, 2026

changedInput schema / properties / value / description

Previous value: -"The numeric value to convert. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\")."New value: +"The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\")."

removedInput schema / required

Removed value: -[
-  "value",
-  "format"
-]

First observedSep 26, 2026

TDQS

A4.4/5.0

Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint=true, openWorldHint=false and destructiveHint=false, so the bar is low. The description still adds real behavioral context beyond them: the output always contains all three representations, and American odds use the no-comma convention (+441 or -200). It does not restate return format in detail, but an output schema exists so that is not required.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Three sentences, front-loaded with purpose, then output convention, then trigger examples. No filler, and the critical formatting caveat is parenthetical rather than buried. The quoted example phrases are slightly redundant with the purpose sentence, keeping this just below a 5.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

A pure two-parameter, read-only converter with an output schema, full schema description coverage and safety annotations. The description covers what it does, what comes back, the input convention quirk, and when to reach for it — nothing an agent needs in order to call it correctly is missing.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so the baseline would be 3. The description earns above baseline by explaining the no-comma American convention and illustrating accepted input strings ('+150', '62%', '2.5'), which clarifies the number-or-string typing in the schema. It does not, however, add anything not already implied about the range or enum semantics of `format`.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description names a specific verb (Convert) and the exact resources (implied probability, American odds, decimal odds), and states the round-trip behavior (give one, get all three). An agent can immediately distinguish this from calculate_ev or kelly_size, which compute value or stake rather than reformat an odds figure.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It gives concrete trigger phrasings ('what is +150 as a probability', 'convert 62% to American odds', 'decimal to implied odds'), which is strong positive routing. It stops short of naming a sibling as the alternative or stating when-not to use it (e.g. if you want expected value, use calculate_ev), so it is clear context rather than full when/when-not guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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