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forecast_trajectory

Outputs a 30-day shutdown-risk trajectory for any country, providing per-day probabilities and confidence intervals.

Instructions

30-day shutdown-risk trajectory for a country — the full risk curve, not just a single 7-day number. Returns per-day probabilities and confidence bands.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
country_codeYesISO 3166-1 alpha-2 country code
Behavior3/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no annotations, the description carries full burden. It discloses that the tool returns per-day probabilities and confidence bands, but does not mention data sources, update frequency, or limitations. Adequate but not rich.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is two concise sentences, front-loading the key purpose and distinguishing feature, with no unnecessary words.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's simplicity (one required parameter, no output schema), the description adequately explains what the tool does and what it returns, meeting completeness needs.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The schema already describes the country_code parameter with 100% coverage, and the description does not add any extra meaning or constraint beyond what is in the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool forecasts a 30-day shutdown-risk trajectory for a country, distinguishing it from a single 7-day number, and specifies it returns per-day probabilities and confidence bands.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines3/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description implies usage when a full 30-day risk curve is needed (contrasting with a single 7-day number), but does not explicitly state when to use it versus other forecast tools or when not to use it.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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