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C0inFlips

binance-mcp-chainvector

by C0inFlips

chainvectorProbability

Compute the probability of price touching a target or staying within a range over a set horizon, using an ensemble of six estimators, to inform take-profit/stop decisions.

Instructions

ChainVector probability engine: P(price > target at horizon end) from a six-estimator convex ensemble (Gaussian CDF, 5-state Markov, Black-Scholes digital, GBM Monte Carlo, Student-t Monte Carlo, empirical bootstrap) on tick-derived 1m bars. kind=touch gives P(price touches target before horizon end); kind=range with low/high gives P(low < price < high). Horizon is free-form 30s-24h, or pass close_ts (Unix ms) for an exact time-to-close. targets=a,b,c prices a strike ladder in one call. Use for take-profit/stop placement and for pricing any binary outcome.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
lowNoRange lower bound (kind=range)
highNoRange upper bound (kind=range)
kindNoProbability kindterminal
symbolNoNormalized symbol, e.g. BTC-USDTBTC-USDT
targetNoStrike/barrier price (kind=terminal or touch)
horizonNoAny duration 30s-24h, e.g. 90s, 7.5m, 1h15m
targetsNoComma-separated strike ladder, max 25 (kind=terminal)
close_tsNoExact close time (Unix ms) — overrides horizon
exchangeNoVenue for the bar sourcebinance
Behavior3/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no annotations, the description carries full behavioral burden. It discloses internal methodology (six-estimator convex ensemble, tick-derived 1m bars) and the semantics of kind and horizon. However, it doesn't describe the return value format or potential failure modes, which would be valuable for a probability engine.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense and front-loaded with the core purpose. Each sentence adds distinct value (methodology, kind variants, horizon flexibility, use cases). Slightly long, but no redundancy; structure is logical.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (9 params, three kinds, no output schema), the description covers purpose, parameter interplay, and use cases thoroughly. It doesn't explicitly state the return format, but the probability semantics are well explained. Considerable effort to make the tool self-documenting.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Despite 100% schema coverage, the description adds significant contextual meaning: explains kind=touch and kind=range semantics, target ladder syntax via 'targets', and how close_ts overrides horizon. This goes well beyond the schema descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's function: computing probability of price hitting a target using a six-estimator ensemble. It distinguishes itself from sibling tools by specifying the probability engine nature and the different kinds (terminal, touch, range).

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit use cases ('take-profit/stop placement', 'pricing any binary outcome') and explains when to use each kind and how close_ts overrides horizon. Lacks explicit exclusions or alternatives, but context is strong enough for an agent to select it appropriately.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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