reference_class_estimate
Estimate task duration more accurately using reference class forecasting. Applies historical correction factors from past estimates, with fallback to industry averages.
Instructions
Data-driven estimate using reference class forecasting.
Applies historical correction factors based on actual-vs-estimated ratios. When no historical data exists, uses industry averages (1.3-2.2x for software tasks). Prioritize this over algorithmic models when historical data is available.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| task_type | Yes | Category of work being estimated for reference-class lookup. | |
| scope | No | Rough size of the task: small=tiny fix/tweak, medium=typical task, large=significant effort, xl=epic-scale. When omitted, inferred from complexity (1-2=small, 3=medium, 4=large, 5=xl). | |
| complexity | No | Fine-tuning complexity from 1 (trivial) to 5 (extreme). Adjusts within the scope band: low complexity shortens, high complexity lengthens the estimate. | |
| team_id | No | Optional team identifier to scope historical data to a specific team. | |
| ai_native | No | Degree of AI assistance: 0.0 = fully human, 1.0 = fully AI-native, 0.5 = hybrid. Accepts boolean for backward compatibility (true=1.0, false=0.0). |