pert_estimate
Calculate expected duration from optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates using the PERT Beta distribution. Get variance, standard deviation, and confidence bounds for uncertain task durations.
Instructions
Calculate PERT expected duration from three-point estimates using Beta distribution.
Formula: E = (O + 4M + P) / 6. Returns expected value, variance, standard deviation, and 95%/99% confidence bounds with urgency categorization. Use when estimating task duration with uncertain outcomes.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| optimistic | Yes | Best-case duration. Do NOT use your initial optimistic guess — this should be the absolute minimum if everything goes perfectly. | |
| most_likely | Yes | Mode of the distribution — the single most probable outcome. | |
| pessimistic | Yes | Worst-case duration accounting for known risks and unknown unknowns. | |
| unit | No | Time unit for all three PERT estimates. | hours |
| task_type | No | Optional task type for feedback matching. Enables per-task-type accuracy tracking. | |
| ai_native | No | Degree of AI assistance: 0.0 = fully human, 1.0 = fully AI-native, 0.5 = hybrid. Accepts boolean for backward compatibility (true=1.0, false=0.0). |