Base Rate Gap
base_rate_gapCompare a prediction market price to a historical base rate to identify mispricing. Get the percentage point gap, directional signal, and sample quality.
Instructions
Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected, fed_hold_unemp_below_4, fed_cut_cpi_above_3, recession_called_12mo, sp500_positive_year, bitcoin_above_100k_eoy, gdp_growth_above_2, cpi_above_3, senate_incumbent_wins_primary, vix_below_20_eoy, interest_rate_cut_next_meeting, major_sports_upset) or your own baseRateValue. Use for "how does this price compare to history", "is the market ignoring the base rate", "historical frequency vs market".
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| baseRateId | No | Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source). | |
| marketPrice | Yes | Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). | |
| baseRateValue | No | Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given. |