Combo Edge Verdict
combo_edgeGrade a same-game combo quote against fair value using leg prices and true win probability. Get expected value, correlation trap flag, and verdict from SMASH to RUN.
Instructions
Grade a same-game combo (parlay-style multi-leg position) on a prediction market against its fair value. Given each leg price in cents and your correlation-aware estimate of the true joint win probability, returns the fair-value ODDS BAND to grade a quote against. Pass offeredOdds — the price your platform actually quotes for the combo (Kalshi combo RFQ or an SGP product) — to get the expected-value %, a negative-correlation-trap flag, and a 7-tier verdict (SMASH / PLAY / LEAN / RISK / NO_VALUE / PASS / RUN). Without offeredOdds it returns fair value + band only (no verdict) — never grade EV off the product of the leg prices, which no venue pays. Use for "is this combo worth it", "grade my parlay quote", "same-game combo value".
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| legPrices | Yes | Each leg's YES price in cents (1–99). Used only for the theoretical assemble ceiling. | |
| offeredOdds | No | The combo price your platform actually quotes — American odds (e.g. -150, 988) or a decimal payout multiplier (e.g. 10.7). Grades EV + verdict against fair value. Omit to get fair value + band only. | |
| trueWinProbability | Yes | Your correlation-aware estimate of the true joint probability all legs hit, in % (0–100). |