Bayesian Probability Update
bayes_updateUpdate a prior probability with new evidence using Bayes theorem. Provide prior and evidence likelihoods to get posterior and step-by-step chain.
Instructions
Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| prior | Yes | Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). | |
| evidence | Yes | One or more evidence items, applied in order. |