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Bayesian Probability Update

bayes_update
Read-only

Update a prior probability with new evidence using Bayes theorem. Provide prior and evidence likelihoods to get posterior and step-by-step chain.

Instructions

Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
priorYesPrior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100).
evidenceYesOne or more evidence items, applied in order.
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already provide readOnlyHint=true. Description adds that evidence is applied in order and returns per-step chain, which is beyond annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Two sentences: first defines function and output, second gives use cases. No fluff, front-loaded with purpose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Tool is simple; description covers input, output, and usage. Missing edge case discussion (e.g., prior=0) but acceptable for this complexity level.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema has 100% coverage with descriptions. Description adds ordering semantics ('applied in order') not present in schema, providing extra clarity.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Clearly states verb (update), resource (prior probability with evidence), and method (Bayes theorem). Distinguishes from siblings like base_rate_gap and calculate_ev by focusing on sequential evidence update.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit example queries (e.g., 'update my estimate with new information') indicating when to use. Lacks explicit when-not or direct comparisons to siblings, but context is clear.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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