boxleiter_estimate
Estimate Steam game revenue using the Boxleiter rule-of-thumb from review count and price. Compare with calibrated forecast to detect outliers requiring investigation.
Instructions
Apply the Boxleiter rule-of-thumb (review_count × multiplier × price).
A heuristic sanity check, NOT a calibrated forecast. Per the formula's own author (Mike Boxleiter, 2023 retrospective), ~24% of games are off by more than 30% from a single-multiplier estimate. Useful to compare against get_forecast() — large divergence between the heuristic and the calibrated cone signals an interesting outlier worth investigating.
Args: review_count: Total Steam reviews on the game's page. price_cents: List price in cents (e.g. 2499 for $24.99).
Returns: Dict with low (×30) / median (×50) / high (×63) revenue brackets in cents + dollars + a calibration warning.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| review_count | Yes | ||
| price_cents | Yes |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
No arguments | |||