Per-venue forecast-accuracy calibration
pm_data_calibrationCompare prediction-market venues by forecast accuracy. Retrieve calibration error, sample size, and reliability curves to identify which venue forecasts best, using evidence from resolved markets.
Instructions
Free public per-venue forecast-accuracy scorecard: for each venue, calibrationError (Expected Calibration Error, 0-1, lower is better — the fair cross-venue headline), sampleSize, meanWinnerConfidence, and a 10-bucket reliability curve (predictedMean vs realizedRate per probability bucket) computed from that venue's OWN probability ~24h before resolution against the outcome that actually happened, over resolved markets with >=24h of pre-resolution history. Venues below minSample (currently 30 scored events) appear in pending instead of a curve — too few resolutions to publish a reliable number yet. Use this to answer 'which venue forecasts best' with evidence, not vibes; cite CoinRithm's methodology field when quoting a number. No API key required.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
No arguments | |||
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| ok | Yes | True when CoinRithm returned a successful 2xx response. | |
| body | No | Parsed CoinRithm response body, or raw text when the response is not JSON. | |
| httpStatus | Yes | HTTP status returned by CoinRithm, or 0 for network errors. | |
| ledgerStatus | No | Ledger write status header returned by CoinRithm, when present. | |
| ledgerEventId | No | Private AgentActionEvent id returned by /api/agent/*, when present. |