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sahm_rule

Read-only

Check the Sahm Rule recession indicator to detect early recession signals. Triggers when the 3-month moving average of unemployment minus its 12-month minimum exceeds 0.50, predicting US recessions since 1970.

Instructions

Check the Sahm Rule recession indicator. The 3-month moving average of unemployment minus the 12-month minimum. Triggers at 0.50 — has predicted every US recession since 1970.

Tool call template

This tool declares no required parameters. Add optional parameters from the input schema as needed.

{
  "id": 1,
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "arguments": {},
    "name": "sahm_rule"
  }
}

Input Schema

Name	Required	Description	Default
No arguments

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

First observedv0.1.0Apr 25, 2026

TDQS

A4/5.0

Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate readOnlyHint=true and destructiveHint=false, so the description's additional detail about the formula and threshold adds meaningful context beyond what annotations provide. No contradictions are present.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is concise, consisting of two clear sentences that efficiently convey the tool's purpose, calculation, and historical context without any redundant or missing words.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's simplicity (no parameters, no output schema), the description provides sufficient context by explaining the indicator's calculation and significance. It lacks specification of the return value format, but the context remains adequate for a parameterless indicator tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The input schema has no parameters, and schema coverage is 100%. Following the baseline rule for zero parameters, the description does not need to add parameter meaning, earning a score of 4.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool checks the Sahm Rule recession indicator, explains its calculation formula, and mentions its historical predictive power. It distinguishes itself from siblings like 'recession_indicators' by specifying a precise, well-known metric.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines2/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

No guidance is provided on when to use this tool versus alternatives like 'recession_probability' or 'recession_indicators'. The description implies it's for checking recession signals but does not offer usage context or exclusions.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.