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BullrunData

Market Intelligence MCP

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recession_probability

Read-only

Get the current US recession probability (0-95%) from a 15-indicator weighted model with dynamic Fed stance and market regime adjustments. Provides risk level, confidence, confirmation status, and actionable recommendation.

Instructions

Get the current US recession probability (0-95%) from a 15-indicator weighted model with dynamic Fed stance and market regime adjustments. Includes risk level, confidence, confirmation status, and actionable recommendation.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault

No arguments

Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already indicate readOnlyHint=true and destructiveHint=false. Description adds valuable behavioral context: model uses 15 indicators, dynamic Fed stance and market regime adjustments, and outputs risk level, confidence, etc. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Single clear sentence with no wasted words. Front-loaded with the main purpose and key details.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Without an output schema, the description adequately lists the types of output (risk level, confidence, confirmation status, recommendation). Some may desire more structure, but it is sufficient for a simple tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

No parameters exist, and schema coverage is 100%. Description is not required to add parameter info; baseline for 0 parameters is 4.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Description clearly states the tool returns US recession probability (0-95%), details the model's 15 indicators, dynamic adjustments, and what is included (risk level, confidence, etc.). It is distinct from siblings like 'recession_indicators' which list indicators.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines3/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

No explicit guidance on when to use this tool versus alternatives (e.g., 'recession_indicators' or 'sahm_rule'). The purpose implies it is for a single composite probability, but the description does not state exclusions or alternative contexts.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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