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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / examples
      Added value: +[
      +  {
      +    "topic": "fed"
      +  },
      +  {
      +    "topic": "btc"
      +  }
      +]
  2. Added

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Goes well beyond readOnlyHint/idempotentHint by disclosing non-obvious behaviors: compatibility codes and their meanings, unclassified legs never paired, null temporal_alignment not meaning aligned, fee model not included, and skipped comparison counters. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Front-loaded with the core concept and then structured by modes, response, safety flags, codes, and caveats; every block carries needed safety semantics. It is long and occasionally repeats 'in EITHER mode,' but the length is justified by the absence of an output schema and the number of safety caveats.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden and covers response fields, spread semantics, flags, fees, skipped counters, and interpretation warnings. An agent has enough to decide whether results are comparable and which caveats apply.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema already documents all three parameters with 100% coverage, so baseline is 3. Description adds value by explaining that BOTH modes execute the same token-overlap matcher, that explicit tickers/slugs override the topic-mapped side, and that topic presets are convenience shortcuts, not tradeability guarantees.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Opens by identifying the exact resource: the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question, which separates it from single-venue siblings. It lacks an explicit action verb like 'computes' or 'returns,' but the noun phrase and subsequent mode descriptions make the function unambiguous.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Gives clear operational guidance: two modes (topic vs explicit pairing), identical matcher, and a strong caution that pre-mapped topics often produce compatibility warnings and are not tradeable. It does not explicitly compare against sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage, so no direct alternates or exclusions are named.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.4/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The set mixes several overlapping query surfaces: ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_beta are currently identical, ask_pipeworx_grounded/deep_research/discover_tools/suggest_questions all serve related retrieval/discovery purposes, and the five polymarket_* tools have similar opportunity-finding goals. Only the unusually detailed descriptions save some tools from misselection; an agent would struggle to quickly pick the right one.

Naming Consistency4/5

Names are uniformly snake_case and mostly follow a verb_noun or prefixed_noun pattern (ask_pipeworx, validate_claim, polymarket_edges, scan_dependency). Minor inconsistencies exist — bare nouns like gene/variant/search sit alongside compound names like generate_llms_txt, and the pipeworx_ prefix isn't applied to ask_pipeworx/deep_research — but the overall style is recognizable and predictable.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is too many for a coherent server, especially since the domains are largely unrelated: 5 gnomAD genomics tools, 20+ Pipeworx/Polymarket data tools, memory CRUD, subscription management, and a couple of web-dev utilities. The count doesn't align with a single obvious scope and would overwhelm an agent selecting among them.

Completeness3/5

Within the major subdomains coverage is strong: memory has remember/recall/forget, subscriptions have full lifecycle tools, and Polymarket has edge detection plus fill-risk checking. However, there are notable gaps — no tool to fetch a pipeworx:// citation URI despite deep_research promising resolvable citations, and the gnomAD surface lacks batch queries, coverage, or constraint data for a server named Gnomad.