telekash-mcp-server
The TeleKash MCP Server is a prediction market probability oracle that gives AI agents real-time access to 4,500+ live prediction markets from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Metaculus across crypto, politics, sports, economics, weather, and entertainment.
Core Capabilities:
Get real-time probabilities (
get_probability): Query YES/NO odds, volume, and liquidity for any market using natural language or a market ID.Browse markets (
list_markets): Filter by category, source, jurisdiction, and sort by volume, probability, or closing date.Search markets (
search_markets): Full-text search across markets using keywords or natural language queries.View historical trends (
get_history): Retrieve probability snapshots over 1h, 24h, 7d, or 30d timeframes to analyze momentum.AI sentiment analysis (
get_sentiment): Get sentiment scores, directional recommendations (bullish/bearish/neutral), and confidence levels.Trending markets (
get_trending): Discover markets with the biggest probability swings to identify breaking events.Aggregate statistics (
get_market_stats): High-level overview of all markets including totals, category distribution, and volume.
Advanced Features (paid tiers):
Arbitrage detection & trading signals (Calibration): Identify cross-source arbitrage and receive TPF signals combining probability, sentiment, and noise filtering.
Advanced analytics (Calibration): Kelly Criterion sizing, expected value calculations, and Brier score performance tracking.
Trade execution & order management (Edge): Route trades to Kalshi, Polymarket, or native parimutuel pools.
Custom market creation & bulk data export (Edge): Create binary prediction markets and export probability history and arbitrage reports.
Webhook alerts (Edge): Notifications for probability crosses, mispricings, and volume spikes.
API Management:
Generate API keys (
generate_api_key): Free tier (100 calls/day), Calibration ($0.01/query), Edge ($0.05/query).Monitor usage (
get_usage): Track quota, rate limits, and tier status.Flexible payments: Pay per-call via USDC (x402 on Base/Polygon/Solana), fiat (Stripe), or TON — no subscription required.
Uses the Coinbase x402 facilitator to enable per-call USDC payments for oracle services on Base, Polygon, and Solana networks.
Supports processing tool usage payments in USDC on the Polygon network via the x402 protocol to access premium prediction market intelligence.
Supports processing tool usage payments in USDC on the Solana network via the x402 protocol to access premium prediction market intelligence.
Integrates Stripe for fiat-based per-query payments, allowing access to advanced analytics, trading signals, and broker execution tools.
Connects to a Supabase backend to retrieve and manage live prediction market data, historical probability history, and market metadata.
Provides API key management and interaction with native parimutuel pools through the @TeleKashBot on the Telegram platform.
Enables direct per-call payments for oracle services and query tools using the TON cryptocurrency on the TON mainnet.
TeleKash MCP Server
Prediction market probability oracle for AI agents.
What is this?
TeleKash is the probability oracle for the agent economy. Real-time access to 4,500+ live prediction markets from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket. Structured trading signals, cross-source arbitrage detection, noise filtering, and smart trade routing across crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, and science.
What makes it different:
Multi-source — Kalshi + Polymarket + native pools, not single-exchange
Self-calibrating — Platt scaling with daily recalibration cycles and Brier score tracking
Universal Payment Layer — agents pay per-call with USDC (Base/Polygon/Solana via x402), fiat (Stripe), or TON
28 tools — from free probabilities to broker execution with 1% commission
Quick Install
npx telekash-mcp-serverClaude Code
claude mcp add telekash-oracle npx telekash-mcp-serverClaude Desktop / Cursor
Add to your MCP configuration file:
{
"mcpServers": {
"telekash-oracle": {
"command": "npx",
"args": ["telekash-mcp-server"]
}
}
}Tools
28 tools across 4 categories. All tools work without an API key on the Free tier (100 queries/day). 4,500+ live markets.
Intelligence
Tool | What it does | Tier |
| Real-time YES/NO probability with volume-weighted confidence score | Free |
| Browse markets by category, source, jurisdiction, with sorting | Free |
| Full-text search across 4,500+ markets | Free |
| Historical probability changes over 1h, 24h, 7d, 30d | Free |
| AI sentiment analysis with conviction, momentum, and noise filter | Free |
| Aggregate statistics across all markets and sources | Free |
| Markets with the biggest probability swings | Free |
| Kalshi vs Polymarket side-by-side odds comparison | Calibration |
Analytics
Tool | What it does | Tier |
| Cross-source arbitrage opportunities with buy/sell signals | Calibration |
| Structured TPF signal: probability + sentiment + noise filter + verdict | Calibration |
| Markets where sources disagree most (STRONG/MODERATE/WEAK) | Calibration |
| Kelly Criterion sizing, expected value, and risk classification | Calibration |
| Record predictions for accuracy tracking | Calibration |
| Brier score, calibration curve, edge-vs-market analysis | Calibration |
Trading
Tool | What it does | Tier |
| Route trades to Kalshi, Polymarket, or native parimutuel pools | Edge |
| Check fill status, price, and commission on broker orders | Edge |
| Cancel pending or submitted broker orders | Edge |
| Native pool composition, participant counts, implied odds | Edge |
| Agent balance, P&L, win rate, and pool position count | Edge |
| Multi-source resolution verification and confidence levels | Edge |
| Create custom binary prediction markets | Edge |
| Bulk export: probability history, resolutions, catalogs, arbitrage | Edge |
Admin
Tool | What it does | Tier |
| Generate a free API key (no signup required) | Free |
| Check current API usage, rate limits, and tier status | Free |
| Webhook alerts for probability crosses, mispricings, volume spikes | Edge |
| List active webhook alerts with delivery stats | Edge |
| Delete a webhook alert | Edge |
| System health: connectivity, data freshness, broker status | Free |
Pricing
Per-query pricing. No subscriptions. Free tier requires no API key.
Tier | Cost | Queries/Day | What you get |
Free | $0 | 100 | Probabilities, search, trending, sentiment, stats, health |
Calibration | $0.01/query | 1,000 | + Cross-source comparison, arbitrage, signals, divergence, Kelly sizing, performance tracking |
Edge | $0.05/query | Unlimited | + Broker trading (1% commission), native pools (5% fee), webhooks, data export, market creation |
Revenue model
Stream | Rate | Description |
Intelligence queries | $0 - $0.05/query | Real-time probability, sentiment, signals |
Broker trades | 1% commission | Best-price execution routed to Kalshi or Polymarket |
Native pool trades | 5% fee at resolution | Parimutuel pools alongside Telegram users |
Universal Payment Layer
Agents can also pay per-call without an API key or tier — attach payment proof directly in tool arguments.
Rail | Network | Asset | Fee |
x402 (Coinbase) | Base, Polygon, Solana | USDC | Free (0%) |
Stripe MPP | Fiat | USD (cards, bank) | 2.9% |
TON | TON mainnet | TON | Free (0%) |
// Agent pays per-call — no subscription needed
const result = await client.callTool({
name: "get_signal",
arguments: {
query: "Bitcoin 200K",
x402_payment: {
tx_hash: "0xabc...",
network: "base",
rail: "x402",
},
},
});Get an API key
# Via the MCP server itself (free tier, no signup)
# Call the generate_api_key tool
# Or via Telegram
# Message @TeleKashBot with /apikeyExample
Connect to the server and query a market probability:
import { Client } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/index.js";
import { StdioClientTransport } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/stdio.js";
const transport = new StdioClientTransport({
command: "npx",
args: ["telekash-mcp-server"],
});
const client = new Client({ name: "my-agent", version: "1.0.0" });
await client.connect(transport);
// Get probability for a market
const result = await client.callTool({
name: "get_probability",
arguments: { query: "Will Bitcoin hit $200K by end of 2026?" },
});
console.log(result.content);
// => { probability: { yes: 34, no: 66 }, confidence: { grade: "HIGH", score: 82 }, ... }More examples in the examples/ directory:
quick-start.ts-- Connect, search, get probabilitiesarbitrage-scanner.ts-- Find cross-source mispricingsportfolio-scanner.ts-- Scan markets and build a ranked portfoliomarket-monitor.ts-- Watch a market and log probability changes
Environment Variables
The server works without any credentials (returns demo data). For live market access:
SUPABASE_URL=https://rrkjtdnxkscukexbsrue.supabase.co
SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=your-anon-key
TELEKASH_API_KEY=your-api-key # Optional: enables paid tiers
TELEKASH_PAYMENT_ADDRESS=0x... # Optional: EVM wallet for x402 USDC payments
TELEKASH_TON_ADDRESS=UQ... # Optional: TON wallet for TON payments
STRIPE_SECRET_KEY=sk_... # Optional: Stripe for fiat payments
X402_FACILITATOR_URL=https://x402.org/facilitator # Default: Coinbase facilitatorData Sources
Source | Type | Sync Frequency |
Kalshi | CFTC-regulated US exchange | Every 15 minutes |
Polymarket | Crypto-native exchange | Every hour |
All sources are aggregated, deduplicated, and categorized automatically across 8 categories: crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, science.
Links
License
MIT
Resources
Unclaimed servers have limited discoverability.
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If you are the server author, to access and configure the admin panel.
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