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winternewt
by winternewt

Absolute risk

absolute_risk
Read-only

Estimate absolute disease risk by combining a polygenic risk score z-score with population prevalence and effect-size data.

Instructions

Estimate absolute disease risk from a PRS z-score and population prevalence.

Joins the score's trait to prevalence + effect-size data. z_score is the PRS in standard deviations from the population mean. Raises if the required prevalence / effect-size data is unavailable for this score.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
pgs_idYes
z_scoreYes
sexNo

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
absolute_riskYesEstimated absolute risk (e.g. 0.18 = 18% lifetime risk)
population_prevalenceYesPopulation baseline prevalence (e.g. 0.11 = 11%)
risk_ratioYesRisk ratio vs population average (e.g. 1.64x)
methodYesEstimation method: 'or_per_sd' or 'auc_bivariate'
confidenceYesData quality confidence: 'high', 'moderate', or 'low'
prevalence_sourceYesWhere the prevalence data came from
prevalence_typeYesType of prevalence: 'lifetime', 'point', or 'cohort'
effect_size_citationNoPaper citation for the OR/AUROC used (e.g. 'Smith et al. 2023, JAMA (PMID: 12345678)')
caveatsNoWarnings about estimation quality (e.g. 'cohort prevalence used, not population')
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint and openWorldHint. The description adds that the tool joins trait data and raises errors on missing data, which is useful behavioral context beyond annotations. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Three sentences: first states purpose, second explains the join operation, third clarifies z_score and error condition. No unnecessary words, efficiently front-loaded with essential information.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

The tool has an output schema, so return values are documented separately. The description covers the main logic and error handling. However, it could mention that sex is optional and default null, but overall it is fairly complete for this complexity level.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The description explains the meaning of z_score (standard deviations from population mean) but does not describe pgs_id or sex. With 0% schema description coverage, the description partially compensates for z_score but leaves other parameters unexplained.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the verb 'Estimate' and the resource 'absolute disease risk', specifying the inputs (PRS z-score and population prevalence). It distinguishes from siblings like 'percentile' by mentioning joining of prevalence and effect-size data.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines3/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description indicates that the tool raises an error if required data (prevalence/effect-size) is unavailable, providing a condition for use. However, it does not explicitly state when to use this tool over alternatives or provide broader usage context.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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