fantasyFootballMCP
Click on "Deploy Server".
Wait a few minutes for the server to deploy. Once ready, it will show a "Started" state.
In the chat, type
@followed by the MCP server name and your instructions, e.g., "@fantasyFootballMCPwho should I start this week?"
That's it! The server will respond to your query, and you can continue using it as needed.
Here is a step-by-step guide with screenshots.
fantasyFootballMCP
I lost last year's fantasy league, and I am determined to never lose again. Instead of studying draft tactics, doing deep dives on new players, obssesing over my lineup every week,,, I would rather create this :)
One of my mistakes last year was trusting ESPN analytics, so I used Claude to help me discover metrics and algos I can use to maximize my team's point potential per week.
I created an MCP server that answers the four questions a fantasy football manager actually asks (who should I start, should I make this trade, who should I pick up, will I make the playoffs) by doing the analysis in Python and returning the conclusion, not the data.
Let's jump in
$ optimize_lineup()
{
"week": 8,
"current_projected": 95.3,
"optimal_projected": 106.1,
"point_gain": 10.8,
"playoff_odds_delta": 0.3,
"win_probability": 34.8,
"strategy": null,
"swaps": [
{ "bench": "Tariq Whitlock", "starter": "Marcus Moreau", "slot": "WR", "gain": 10.7, "reason": "+10.7 projected points" },
{ "bench": "Devin Obi", "starter": "Elijah Villanueva", "slot": "FLEX", "gain": 3.5, "reason": "+3.5 projected points" },
{ "bench": "Soren Quintero", "starter": "Dominic Okafor", "slot": "RB", "gain": -3.4, "reason": "Soren Quintero is OUT" }
],
"caveats": []
}Three swaps and this week's win probability, about 150 tokens. The alternative, handing the model sixteen players, their projections, their injury designations and the league's slot eligibility rules, and asking it to solve an assignment problem in context, costs ~31,900 tokens and gets the answer wrong, because the correct answer is a maximum-weight bipartite matching and not a sort.
Every transcript in this README is real output from uv run poe demo, which runs the whole
tool surface against a committed fixture league. None of it is written by hand.
Quickstart
No ESPN account, no credentials, no network beyond PyPI:
git clone https://github.com/jeremylach2/fantasyFootballMCP
cd fantasyFootballMCP
uv sync
uv run poe demoConnect Claude Desktop by adding this to claude_desktop_config.json:
{
"mcpServers": {
"fantasy-football": {
"command": "uv",
"args": ["run", "--directory", "/absolute/path/to/fantasyFootballMCP", "ffmcp"],
"env": { "FFMCP_MODE": "demo" }
}
}
}Or Claude Code, from inside the repo:
claude mcp add fantasy-football --env FFMCP_MODE=demo -- uv run ffmcpDrop FFMCP_MODE=demo, copy .env.example to .env, and set FFMCP_LEAGUE_ID from your
league's URL. Private leagues also need FFMCP_ESPN_S2 and FFMCP_SWID, the two session cookies
from a logged-in ESPN browser session (DevTools → Application → Cookies →
fantasy.espn.com). Those cookies are as sensitive as your ESPN password, so .env is
gitignored and every error message is redacted before it can reach a log or a model.
FFMCP_TEAM_ID picks which roster is "mine". Leave it unset and the server asks once through
MCP elicitation. For streamable HTTP instead of stdio, run uv run poe serve and point a client
at http://localhost:8000/mcp.
Related MCP server: espn-ff-manager
What it does
Thirteen tools, four resources, three prompts. All output below is verbatim from the demo league.
Tool | Does |
| Show my roster with projections, injuries and bye weeks. |
| Find the lineup most likely to win this week's matchup, and the swaps to get there. |
| Break down this week's matchup: win probability, edges, and the playoff stakes. |
| Suggest trades both sides gain from, priced over the rest of the season. |
| Evaluate a specific proposed trade from both sides. |
| Rank free agents by value this week and rest of season; show my RBs' handcuffs. |
| Find players scoring ahead of or behind their workload. |
| Simulate the rest of the season for playoff odds and seeding. |
| Show standings with playoff odds and strength of schedule. |
| Rank teams by all-play record, with luck and lineup accuracy. |
| One player in depth: range, second opinion, value, workload, betting line. |
| Compare players for a start/sit decision, with floors and ceilings. |
| How accurate ESPN has been in this league, against a second source. |
Plus four resources (ffmcp://league/settings, ffmcp://league/teams, ffmcp://glossary,
ffmcp://team/{team_id}/roster) that carry stable reference data with long cache TTLs instead of
being re-fetched as tool calls, and three prompts (weekly_checkin, trade_workshop,
playoff_push) that chain several tools into one routine.
Who should I start?
get_my_team shows the lineup as ESPN has it set. Note the running back ruled out and the
receiver on bye, both still in the lineup: it is Sunday morning and nobody has touched it.
Week 8 — Team Alpha (3-4-0)
Injuries: S. Quintero (O), L. Novak (I)
SLOT PLAYER POS TM PROJ ST
QB L. Petrov QB LAC 22.6
RB S. Quintero RB DAL 11.8 O
RB I. Adeyemi RB IND 9.6
WR T. Whitlock WR SEA BYE
WR D. Rios WR GB 15.9
TE L. Santoro TE NO 13.0
FLEX D. Obi TE DET 6.9
D/ST WSH D/ST D/ST WSH 6.7
K T. Prescott K MIN 8.8
BE Q. Hargrove QB IND 19.4
BE T. Moreau RB KC 6.9
BE D. Okafor RB TEN 8.4
BE M. Moreau WR NYG 10.7
BE E. Villanueva WR NE 10.4
BE D. Holloway WR BAL 6.9
IR L. Novak RB MIA 5.2 Ioptimize_lineup is the response at the top of this README: +10.8 projected points, a 34.8%
chance of beating this week's opponent, and +0.3 points of playoff odds. analyze_matchup prices
the week:
Week 8 (proj): Team Alpha 106.1 vs Team India 118.6 — 35% win prob
Biggest edges:
RB: Team India +25.9
K: Team Alpha +8.8
WR: Team Alpha +4.8
Swing player: D. Rios (WR GB, ±12.6 pts)
Stakes: win -> 4% playoff odds, loss -> 0% (3-pt swing)Stakes is one simulation of the season split by how this week's game went, so it answers "how
much does this game matter" rather than "how likely am I to win it". Alpha is nearly eliminated,
so the answer is: not much. A bubble team in week 12 sees 20-point swings.
Win probability, not points. optimize_lineup maximises the chance of beating this
opponent, which is not always the same lineup as the most projected points. With your score and
theirs both roughly Normal, P(win) = Φ((μ − μₒ) / √(σ² + σₒ²)): an underdog raises it by
raising σ, a favourite by lowering it. So the optimizer re-runs the exact matching with each
player scored mean + tilt × sd for a handful of tilts, keeps whichever lineup truly wins most
often, and explains itself in strategy whenever that costs projected points. An honest note on
how often that happens: in a real 16-team league in week 3 it changed none of 16 lineups.
Spread is nearly proportional to projection, so tilting rescales two same-position players
together and cannot reorder them; it bites only when two close players' spreads genuinely
differ, which mostly means one projection the sources dispute. The feature is cheap, correct,
and occasionally decisive, and it is described here as exactly that.
Should I make this trade?
find_trades enumerates 1-for-1, 2-for-1 and 1-for-2 packages across every other roster,
keeps only the ones both sides gain from, and ranks them by what they do to my playoff
odds:
Team Bravo [lucky] (id 2): give Q. Hargrove / get B. Battaglia, M. Quintero — me +39.1pts, them +12.4pts, +3.7% odds — Strengthens RB by 8.0 started pts/wk.
Team Bravo [lucky] (id 2): give L. Petrov / get L. Castellan — me +35.1pts, them +25.5pts, +2.9% odds — Strengthens RB by 9.8 started pts/wk.
Team Bravo [lucky] (id 2): give Q. Hargrove / get C. Castellan — me +21.9pts, them +23.9pts, +2.9% odds — Strengthens RB by 6.7 started pts/wk.
Team Bravo [lucky] (id 2): give L. Petrov / get B. Battaglia, T. Obi — me +38.1pts, them +1.6pts, +2.6% odds — Strengthens RB by 8.0 started pts/wk.The first row is the whole thesis of the trade module in one line. Quentin Hargrove is a
19.4-point quarterback, on a roster that already starts a 22.6-point quarterback, in a league
with one QB slot. He is worth zero to Team Alpha, because he never plays. He is worth 6.5
points a week to Team Bravo, who start a 12.9-point quarterback. What a player is worth is a
property of the roster, not of the player, and that asymmetry is the only reason trades happen.
marginal_value measures it as the change in a roster's optimal lineup from adding or
removing him, which is exactly why the optimizer had to be both correct and fast.
Points are priced week by week over the rest of the season, not as this week's value times
the weeks left: each player is absent in his own bye week, later weeks use his season-average
projection rather than this week's matchup, and the playoff weeks count in proportion to each
side's playoff odds. Offers that are the same core swap with a different sweetener are collapsed
into one, and the partner's tag ([lucky], [unlucky], [inattentive], from
power_rankings) says what their record is hiding.
evaluate_trade prices one named offer from both sides:
{
"verdict": "lean_accept",
"my_value_delta": 21.9,
"partner_value_delta": 23.9,
"my_playoff_odds_delta": 2.9,
"positional_impact": "Strengthens RB by 6.7 started pts/wk.",
"risks": []
}An offer only one side gains from is a fleece and will be declined by any manager who does the same arithmetic, so those are filtered out rather than ranked low. The filter is the feature.
Who should I pick up?
find_waiver_targets ranks free agents by marginal value to this roster, not by
projection, and not by how many people are adding them, and always names the drop, because a
pickup recommendation without one is not advice:
PLAYER POS TM PROJ VAL ROS DROP
D. Ivanov RB CIN 12.4 +4.0 +19 T. Moreau
C. Fairbanks WR KC 13.1 +2.7 +17 T. Moreau
ARI D/ST D/ST ARI 8.8 +2.1 +6 WSH D/ST
I. Battaglia WR CHI 10.6 +0.2 +2 T. MoreauCaleb Fairbanks is the higher projection. Devin Ivanov is the better pickup, because this roster
is thin at running back and deep at receiver. VAL is this week; ROS is the whole move, add and
drop, over the rest of the calendar. The two disagree more than you would guess: in a live league
the best defense to stream this week was worth +3.4 now and +9 for the season, while one
projected 0.2 lower was worth +36, because its good matchup was not a one-off.
An earlier version of this table told Team Alpha to drop Tariq Whitlock, the roster's hottest receiver, for every pickup. He is on bye this week, so his projection was zero, and cuts were ranked by this week's projection. They are now ranked by rest-of-season rate.
When the roster starts a lead running back, a Handcuffs: line names the teammate who inherits
his work if he goes down (the back playing the most snaps behind him) and where that player is:
free agent, your bench, or another roster.
Who is due to regress?
Points are volume times efficiency times touchdown luck, and only volume holds up week to week.
buy_low_sell_high prices every player-game by its opportunity alone (targets, carries, air
yards, pass attempts) as expected points, and treats the gap to actual points as luck:
Sell high (yours, scoring above their workload):
PLAYER POS TM OWNER G SNAP XPPG PPG LUCK
T. Whitlock WR SEA Team Alpha 7 88% 9.2 15.3 +6.0
Hold, do not sell low (yours, due to improve):
PLAYER POS TM OWNER G SNAP XPPG PPG LUCK
L. Petrov QB LAC Team Alpha 7 100% 23.0 12.5 -10.5
Buy low (other rosters):
PLAYER POS TM OWNER G SNAP XPPG PPG LUCK
J. Quintero WR GB Team Charlie 7 88% 18.2 11.9 -6.3
T. Delgado QB BAL Team Foxtrot 6 100% 23.2 17.0 -6.2
T. Osei WR KC Team Bravo 7 88% 18.6 12.5 -6.2
D. Thackeray QB DET Team India 6 100% 21.3 15.3 -6.0
L. Ellington WR DET Team Golf 6 88% 15.3 9.7 -5.7
Buy low (free agents):
noneThat is a claim about the future, so it was tested on one: fit on 2024, scored on 2025. Expected points per game through week 4 predicted the next six weeks with a mean absolute error of 3.44 points, against 3.69 for actual points per game. Players 3+ points per game below their expected points went on to score +3.5 more per game; players 3+ above gave back 2.9. The ±3 threshold is where that regression was measured, and labels wait for three games (before that, the tool shows the biggest gaps as a watch list, and says so).
One player, in depth
Damon Rios — WR GB, week 8
Projected: 15.9 pts (range 0.0-32.1, p10-p90)
Second opinion: Sleeper 8.7; sources disagree by 45%, so the range is wider
Status: healthy · bye week 9
Value over replacement: +3.7 pts/wk, +22.4 pts rest of season (6.1 wks, byes and playoff odds counted)
Usage (7 g): 62% snaps (last 62%), 9.7 tgt/g (28% share), expected 16.6 vs actual 15.0 pts/g
Game: GB implied 23.0 pts (-1.0 vs WSH, total 45.0)
Market: 96% ownedGame is the betting market's implied team total (total ÷ 2 − spread ÷ 2), from The Odds API
when a key is configured. It is context, never an input: ESPN's projection already prices the
matchup, and adding Vegas on top would count the same information twice.
Will I make the playoffs?
simulate_season runs a vectorized Monte Carlo over the remaining schedule:
2,000 sims, weeks 8-14:
TEAM REC MEANW PLAYOFF% TITLE%
T. Echo 6-1 10.3 95.8% 27.8%
T. Bravo 6-1 10.0 93.2% 22.8%
T. Foxtrot 5-2 9.2 84.9% 24.8%
T. Hotel 5-2 8.3 56.2% 8.6%
T. Charlie 4-3 8.0 52.5% 12.7%
T. India 2-5 5.7 8.5% 2.1%
T. Juliet 2-5 5.6 5.2% 0.8%
T. Alpha 3-4 5.7 3.6% 0.5%
T. Delta 1-6 4.0 0.1% 0.0%
T. Golf 1-6 3.3 0.1% 0.0%Team Alpha is 3-4 and behind a 2-5 team in playoff odds. That is correct, and the reason to simulate rather than extrapolate a record: Alpha's roster projects worse, and seven weeks is enough for that to matter more than one game of standings.
Who is actually good?
A record is a noisy measure of a team in head-to-head fantasy, because the schedule decides who
you play on the week you score 140. power_rankings scores every team against every other
team every week (all-play), calls the gap to actual wins luck, and grades each manager's
lineup decisions separately from the dice:
Power rankings after 7 weeks (by all-play record):
RK ID TEAM W-L ALLPLAY LUCK PPG LINEUP% BENCH
1 5 Team Echo 6-1 53-10 +0.1 126.7 96% 15.7
2 2 Team Bravo 6-1 42-21 +1.3 117.8 100% 8.9
3 8 Team Hotel 5-2 40-23 +0.6 114.6 100% 13.0
4 6 Team Foxtrot 5-2 36-27 +1.0 115.2 100% 15.8
5 9 Team India 2-5 35-28 -1.9 111.3 100% 12.6
6 3 Team Charlie 4-3 29-34 +0.8 109.8 100% 11.7
7 1 Team Alpha 3-4 28-35 -0.1 96.7 100% 13.3
8 10 Team Juliet 2-5 23-40 -0.6 102.2 100% 16.9
9 4 Team Delta 1-6 16-47 -0.8 93.6 100% 17.0
10 7 Team Golf 1-6 13-50 -0.4 93.9 100% 11.2
Team Echo: inattentive
Team Bravo: lucky
Team Foxtrot: lucky
Team India: unluckyLINEUP% is projected points started over the best lineup by the projections of the day. The
obvious alternative, actual points over the best lineup in hindsight (the BENCH column, as
points per game), was measured on a real league and is mostly noise: a manager with 99.8%
lineup accuracy scored 83% of hindsight-optimal, because nobody knows which receiver will boom.
Lineup accuracy behaves like a trait instead: the same manager lagged the league in both 2025
and 2026. Team India, 2-5 with the fifth-best all-play record, is the team to trade with.
How far should I trust the projections?
Projection error in this league, weeks 1-7 (mean absolute error, pts):
POS N ESPN SLEEPER AVG BIAS
QB 130 6.24 6.38 6.29 -0.99
RB 329 4.82 4.86 4.83 +0.17
WR 338 4.76 4.79 4.75 -1.27
TE 129 4.59 4.48 4.52 -0.42
K 65 3.65 3.74 3.69 -0.13
D/ST 68 5.98 5.90 5.93 +0.54
ALL 1059 4.95 4.98 4.95 -0.50
ESPN is closer by 0.03 pts/player-week. Differences under ~0.3 are noise at this sample size; where the sources disagree, trust both less.
Biggest disagreements on your roster this week: D. Rios 15.9 vs 8.7Measured, not assumed
This project started from a hunch, that ESPN's projections were the problem, and a list of
features that followed from it. Before building any of them, every one was tested against a real
16-team league's full 2025 season (about 3,000 player-weeks of ESPN projection beside actual
score) and, for expected points, against nflverse play-by-play for 2024 and 2025. Half of them
survived. scripts/calibrate.py reproduces every number here and every fitted constant in
domain/.
Idea | Result | So |
ESPN is the weak link; blend in a second source | Sleeper MAE 5.68 vs ESPN 5.68; their average 5.66 | Not blended. A second opinion, shown. |
Where sources disagree, projections are worse | Most-disputed 5% missed by 2.5× the least-disputed half | Kept: disagreement widens a player's range |
Correct each player by his own recent misses | Worse next-half error at every shrinkage strength | Not done. Last month's miss is noise. |
Per-player spread from his own history | No better than his position's, at any shrinkage | Not done |
The old variance model (hand-picked, ×1.6 "correlation") | Lineup sd 33 vs a measured 22.4 | Replaced by measured spreads, ×0.92 |
Opportunity predicts better than points | MAE 3.44 vs 3.69, out of sample | Kept: |
Hindsight lineup efficiency grades managers | Mostly luck (99.8% accurate, 83% efficient) | Replaced by lineup accuracy |
Chase variance as an underdog | Correct, but changed 0 of 16 real lineups in week 3 | Kept, and documented as rarely decisive |
The variance change matters most, even though it is the least visible. The old model overstated every lineup's weekly spread by nearly half (33 points against a real 22), which pulled every win probability toward 50% and understated how much a better lineup, trade or pickup was worth. Its one-standard-deviation band caught 86% of real team-weeks; a calibrated band should catch 68%, and the measured model's catches 69%.
How it works
Four layers, one direction of dependency:
mcp/ thin adapters: decode args → call domain → render → return
│ (no business logic, no arithmetic, no I/O)
▼
render/ domain objects → compact text / small structured models
│
▼
domain/ PURE: models, optimizer, simulation, valuation, trades
▲ (no I/O, no network, no MCP imports, no clock, no randomness
│ except through an injected Generator)
providers/ ALL I/O: espn-api, Sleeper over httpx2, disk cacheproviders/ builds domain objects and hands them upward. domain/ never reaches down. That is
what makes the interesting code, the optimizer and the simulator, testable in milliseconds with
no network and no MCP, and it is enforced rather than asserted: tests/test_layering.py walks
the AST of every module under domain/ and fails if one of them imports mcp, httpx2,
httpx, espn_api, requests or ffmcp.providers.
Upstream payloads never reach the model. Sleeper's player document is 14.6 MB. It is fetched at
most daily and reduced to an id→{name, pos, team} index on write. ESPN league payloads are
cached with TTLs that follow how fast the underlying truth moves (league settings 24 h, rosters
10 min, live scores 60 s) and projected into narrow domain models before anything is returned.
Startup does no network at all, so tools/list answers immediately.
Request lifecycle: a single tool invocation flows through resolving settings and the league
handle from context, fetching upstream data (cached, TTL by volatility), calling pure domain
code, and rendering the result. The adapter decodes args and orchestrates. domain/ never
knows about MCP, ESPN, or credentials.
Error handling: errors are short (one or two lines, never stack traces). A redact() helper
strips secrets from every message and log line. When upstream fails and cache holds an expired
entry, serve the stale data and say so: "cached 14m ago; ESPN unreachable" is far more useful
than an exception. See docs/architecture.md for the full architecture.
Token efficiency
Response cost here is designed, measured, and regression-tested like any other engineering
property. src/ffmcp/budgets.py is the single source of truth for the per-tool budgets.
tests/test_token_budgets.py asserts every tool at every detail level against them and fails
CI on a regression. uv run poe bench regenerates the table below from real fixture output, and
CI fails if the committed table has gone stale.
Three rules do most of the work. Return conclusions, not data: optimize_lineup returns
the swaps, not the roster. Default to the cheapest useful detail: every list-shaped tool
takes detail: "compact" | "standard" | "full" and defaults to compact. Pick one channel per
payload shape: the SDK derives structuredContent from the return annotation and emits a
text block, and both reach the model, so lists return str with structured_output=False while
small decision-shaped results (LineupAdvice, TradeVerdict) return Pydantic models where the
schema earns its keep. That last one is a measured trade-off, not a preference: for a 15-row
table, carrying both channels is close to double cost for no gain.
tool | detail | tokens | upstream bytes | tokens-if-naive |
| compact | 176 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| standard | 237 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| full | 262 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| - | 378 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| compact | 61 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| standard | 78 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| - | 148 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| - | 50 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| compact | 68 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| standard | 85 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| full | 92 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| - | 203 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| - | 136 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| compact | 170 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| - | 206 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| - | 105 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| - | 49 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
| - | 143 | 127,618 | ~31,904 |
Every row's naive comparison is against the full fixture league payload (a 10-team league snapshot, standing in for a real upstream fetch) serialized as-is, rather than the reduced, narrow response above it. tokens is the deterministic local estimator. upstream bytes/tokens-if-naive are the same for every row because this benchmark runs against one fixture league. A live league's numbers vary by roster size and week, but the shape of the reduction does not.
The naive column is the honest comparison: it is what a passthrough server would spend to let the model answer the same question itself. The reduction runs from 140× to nearly 900×, and the answer is also correct, which the passthrough version would not reliably be.
tokens comes from a deterministic local estimator so CI needs no API key and no network. The
estimator's error against Anthropic's real token-counting endpoint has not been measured,
since this environment had neither the optional anthropic package nor a key. This functionality will be added in the future if requested.
The optimizer
See: src/ffmcp/domain/optimizer.py.
Assign rostered players to starting slots to maximize total projected points, where each slot
admits a set of positions (RB/WR/TE takes a back, receiver or tight end), each player fills at
most one slot, and each slot holds at most one player.
Greedy is wrong, and provably so. The obvious algorithm, walking the slots in order and dropping
the best eligible player into each, strands position-locked slots. ESPN declares its RB/WR flex
before the locked WR slot, so a greedy pass hands the flex the receiver the locked slot
needed and backfills WR with whatever is left. The concrete counterexample is the first test
in the file, written before the module was:
slot | slot | total | |
greedy | Top Receiver (17.0) | Scrub Receiver (3.0) | 20.0 |
optimal | Solid Back (12.0) | Top Receiver (17.0) | 29.0 |
Nine points, on a two-slot roster, from an algorithm that looks obviously fine. On a real lineup the gap is smaller and much harder to notice, which is worse.
So it is solved exactly, as a maximum-weight bipartite matching: the Hungarian method in
its successive-shortest-augmenting-path form with dual potentials, O(n²m) for n slots and m
candidates. At roster scale (n ≈ 10, m ≈ 16) that is microseconds, which is what makes it
affordable to call it thousands of times inside the trade search. Hand-written, about sixty
lines of matching, no scipy. greedy() is kept in the module purely as a test baseline, marked as such, so the gap
stays measurable: a property test asserts optimal ≥ greedy across 1,000 randomized rosters.
Every slot is also offered a zero-weight "leave it empty" option, which is what lets a roster too thin or too injured to fill the lineup produce a valid partial lineup instead of an error. Ties break by player id, so output is stable across runs.
Simulation
src/ffmcp/domain/simulate.py runs the rest of the season as a
vectorized numpy Monte Carlo: each team's weekly score is drawn from a distribution whose mean
is its optimal-lineup projection and whose variance comes from
domain/variance.py: per-position spreads measured on a real
league's season, widened for players whose projection sources disagree (see
Measured, not assumed).
Why Δ win-probability instead of Δ points. "This lineup change is worth 10.8 points" is
not the question. The question is whether it wins the week and the season, and the answer
depends on the opponent, the schedule and the standings. A 10-point gain is decisive in a close
matchup and irrelevant in a blowout, and only a simulation knows which one you are in. So
optimize_lineup reports both, and find_trades ranks on odds.
Common random numbers: comparing two scenarios by running two independent simulations would
bury a one-point lineup gain under sampling noise. The difference you are trying to measure is
far smaller than the standard error of either run. So win_prob_delta draws a single
(n_sims, n_weeks, n_teams) noise array and evaluates both scenarios against it. The
scenarios then differ only by the change under test, and the noise cancels in the difference.
This is the non-obvious technique in the file and it has a test that is the argument for it:
the delta for a strictly better lineup must be positive in ≥ 95% of 100 seeds, while the same
comparison with independent draws is measurably noisier.
Everything is seeded through an injected numpy.random.Generator. No module-level global
random state, so runs are exactly reproducible. 10,000 sims for a 12-team league finish in
under two seconds, and the work runs in asyncio.to_thread with progress reported via
ctx.report_progress().
Modern MCP
Built against MCP spec 2026-07-28 and Python SDK 2.x (MCPServer), not the v1
FastMCP API that most training data describes. What that buys, and where to look:
Feature | Where | Why |
Cache hints |
|
|
Tool annotations | every |
|
Resource templates |
|
|
Elicitation, with a fallback |
| asked once when |
Progress |
|
|
Stateless HTTP |
|
|
Deterministic list order |
| tools registered in documented order for prompt-cache stability, asserted by |
And, as deliberately, what is not used:
Not used | Why |
Sampling ( | This server makes no LLM calls. Analysis is deterministic Python; the host model narrates. |
Roots ( | Nothing here is filesystem-scoped. Paths come from config. |
Logging ( | Deprecated in spec |
Write operations of any kind | The server holds ESPN session cookies. It recommends; the human acts. The blast radius of a confused model is zero. |
Knowing what a spec revision deprecated is a stronger signal than using every feature it kept.
That table was built by introspecting the installed SDK (mcp==2.2.0) directly, not recalled
from memory, since most MCP examples online still target the superseded v1 FastMCP API.
Configuration
Variable | Default | Notes |
|
|
|
| — | required in live mode |
| current | derived from Sleeper's |
| — | which team is "mine"; elicited once if unset |
| — | secret; private leagues only |
| — | secret; private leagues only |
| — | optional; The Odds API free key for betting lines ( |
|
| |
|
| Monte Carlo iterations |
Secrets are typed SecretStr, and errors.py:redact() strips anything cookie-shaped, and any
apiKey= query parameter, from every error message and log line at the boundary (unit-tested
against a fake espn_s2, a SWID GUID and a key-bearing URL).
Every signal beyond ESPN is optional and degrades to a one-line caveat rather than an error:
no odds key means no Game line; Sleeper or nflverse being down means ranges from position
spreads alone, or no usage section. A tool that refused to set a lineup because GitHub was slow
would be worse than one that sets it with slightly less information and says so. See the Quickstart above for where to find ESPN cookies.
Testing
uv run poe check # ruff lint + format, mypy --strict, pytest, benchmark freshness230 tests, no network anywhere: fixtures for ESPN, httpx2.MockTransport for Sleeper, nflverse
and The Odds API. Beyond the usual, the suite carries a few tests that exist to turn claims into
facts: the layering purity check, the greedy-vs-optimal counterexample, the common-random-numbers
comparison, the token budgets, a star on his bye week never being the roster cut, one good
matchup never being extrapolated across a season, and a hygiene test asserting no fixture
contains a real league id or anything cookie-shaped.
The demo league itself is synthetic (invented players, invented projections), generated
deterministically by scripts/make_demo_fixture.py and committed, so that shipping a runnable
demo does not mean publishing anyone's real roster. Its history, usage, second-opinion
projections and betting lines come from scripts/make_demo_insights.py, derived from that league
so the two agree: each team's starters add up to the scores its standings were built from. scripts/record_fixtures.py is the other
path, for anonymizing a real league you have consent to use.
One gap, stated rather than hidden: the surface has been exercised end-to-end over real stdio
and through an in-process mcp.Client, but not yet by hand through a GUI client.
Docker
docker build -t ffmcp .
docker run -p 8000:8000 -e FFMCP_MODE=demo ffmcp # no credentials
docker run -p 8000:8000 --env-file .env ffmcp # real league, needs FFMCP_AUTH_TOKEN tooSlim, non-root, streamable HTTP only: stdio does not make sense across a container boundary.
A live-mode server refuses to start over HTTP without FFMCP_AUTH_TOKEN set (see
.env.example) — with no auth layer, an internet-reachable endpoint would let anyone who found
the URL read your real league through the tools. Every request must then carry it back as
Authorization: Bearer <token>. Demo mode skips this: it only ever serves synthetic fixtures,
so an open demo endpoint is harmless and is the easiest way to let someone try the server
without configuring anything.
Deploying publicly for free
Render's free web service tier needs no credit card, builds straight from
this repo's Dockerfile, and gives you a public HTTPS URL. The tradeoff: a free instance sleeps
after 15 minutes idle and takes 30-50s to wake on the next request, which is fine for a tool an
agent calls occasionally.
Push this repo to GitHub (or use your fork).
On Render: New → Web Service, connect the repo, environment Docker. Render detects the
Dockerfileautomatically; leave the build/start commands blank.Set environment variables under the service's Environment tab:
FFMCP_MODE=live,FFMCP_LEAGUE_ID, and (private leagues only)FFMCP_ESPN_S2/FFMCP_SWID— same as.env.example.FFMCP_AUTH_TOKEN— generate one locally withpython -c "import secrets; print(secrets.token_urlsafe(32))"and paste it in. The server will not start without this in live mode.Leave
PORTalone; Render injects it and the container's entrypoint binds to$PORTautomatically (falling back to 8000 only when it's unset, e.g. a plain localdocker run).
Deploy. Point any Streamable-HTTP MCP client at
https://<your-service>.onrender.com/mcpwith headerAuthorization: Bearer <your token>.
Rotate the token (just change the env var and redeploy) if it ever leaks — there is no session or expiry on it otherwise.
License
MIT
This server cannot be deployed
Maintenance
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