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kingmadellc

Prediction Market MCP

by kingmadellc

prediction_market_size

Compute Kelly-optimal position size for a prediction market trade from estimated probability, market price, confidence, bankroll, and category filters.

Instructions

Kelly-optimal position sizing for a prediction market trade. Uses configured Kelly parameters (α=0.75, conf_exp=1.0); no performance improvement is guaranteed. Applies market filter rules (skip fed/ultra-low/short-duration, boost policy/tech/markets). Costs $0.08 via x402 micropayment (USDC on Base).

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
bankrollNoTotal available capital in USD for kelly sizing (default: 200)
categoryNoMarket category for filter application (optional)
confidenceYesYour confidence in the estimate (0.0 to 1.0), typically from prediction_market_estimate
market_priceYesCurrent market price as a probability (0.0 to 1.0)
estimated_probYesYour estimated probability of the event (0.0 to 1.0), typically from prediction_market_estimate

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. First observedv1.0.1

TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no annotations, the description carries the full burden and does well: it discloses the $0.08 x402/USDC-on-Base cost, the configured Kelly parameters (α=0.75, conf_exp=1.0), and that market filter rules may skip or boost categories, which materially changes output. It omits auth/wallet requirements for x402 and the shape of what is returned.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Three dense sentences, front-loaded with the core purpose, with no filler. The 'no performance improvement is guaranteed' disclaimer earns its place, though the sentence packs α/conf_exp, filter rules, and payment into a jargon-heavy block.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

For a 5-parameter mutation-style tool with no output schema and no annotations, the description covers cost, configuration, filtering behavior, and a risk disclaimer. The main gap is that the returned value (e.g., position size/fraction) is never characterized.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so all five parameters are already documented, establishing a baseline of 3. The description adds only indirect context – the Kelly parameters and category filter behavior that 'category' feeds into – without explaining units or formats beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb and resource: 'Kelly-optimal position sizing for a prediction market trade.' This is clearly distinct in intent from siblings like estimate/scan/ensemble/info, though the description never names or contrasts those alternatives explicitly.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines3/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Usage is only implied: sizing logically follows an estimate, and the schema notes inputs 'typically from prediction_market_estimate.' The description itself gives no explicit when-to-use, when-not, or transition guidance relative to the sibling tools.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.