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Calculate metric trend

calculate_metric_trend

Read-onlyIdempotent

Analyze if a health or finance metric is trending up, down, or flat over a date range by fitting a straight line and reporting slope and r-squared.

Instructions

Fit a simple straight-line trend to one metric over a window and report its direction, slope (change per day), and r_squared (how well a straight line actually fits — low r_squared means "noisy," not "flat").

Use this tool when:

the user asks whether one metric is trending up/down/flat over a continuous window (e.g. "is my weight trending down?", "how has my HRV changed?").

Do not use this tool when:

the user wants two specific, separately-defined ranges compared (e.g. "this month vs last month") rather than a single continuous slope -> use compare_metric_periods instead.
the user asks what's typical/normal rather than which direction it's moving -> use get_baseline instead.
the user asks about isolated unusual days rather than an overall direction -> use detect_metric_anomalies instead.

Privacy note: this server and its SQLite file are entirely local, but the data returned by this tool becomes part of the conversation sent to whatever model the calling client is configured with. If that model runs in the cloud rather than on your machine, treat this the same as pasting the data into a chat with that provider.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema

Name	Required	Description
`metric`	Yes	One of steps, sleep_hours, resting_heart_rate, weight_kg, workout_minutes, mood, water_ml, heart_rate, hrv_ms.
`end_date`	No	Last day to include, formatted YYYY-MM-DD. Defaults to today.
`start_date`	No	First day to include, formatted YYYY-MM-DD. Defaults to 30 days before end_date.

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema

Name	Required	Description
`claim`	Yes	Evidence and decision for the trend claim; read claim.decision before reporting it.
`range`	Yes
`trend`	Yes
`metric`	Yes
`evidence`	Yes	DEPRECATED: identical to claim.evidence. Use claim.decision, not evidence.confidence.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

Changed3 schema fields changedv1.0.28Sep 30, 2026

removedOutput schema / properties / claim_decision

Removed value: -{
-  "deprecated": true,
-  "description": "DEPRECATED: identical to claim.decision. Use claim.decision instead.",
-  "properties": {
-    "must_state": {
-      "items": {
-        "type": "string"
-      },
-      "type": "array"
-    },
-    "permitted_phrasing_class": {
-      "type": "string"
-    },
-    "template": {
-      "type": "string"
-    },
-    "tier": {
-      "type": "string"
-    }
-  },
-  "required": [
-    "tier",
-    "permitted_phrasing_class",
-    "must_state",
-    "template"
-  ],
-  "type": "object"
-}

removedOutput schema / properties / evidence_profile

Removed value: -{
-  "deprecated": true,
-  "description": "DEPRECATED: identical to claim.profile. Use claim.decision instead.",
-  "properties": {
-    "analysis": {
-      "type": "string"
-    },
-    "dimensions": {
-      "items": {
-        "properties": {
-          "can_block": {
-            "default": true,
-            "type": "boolean"
-          },
-          "details": {
-            "additionalProperties": true,
-            "type": "object"
-          },
-          "dimension": {
-            "enum": [
-              "sample",
-              "temporal",
-              "robustness",
-              "missingness",
-              "practical",
-              "measurement_validity",
-              "provenance"
-            ],
-            "type": "string"
-          },
-          "reason_codes": {
-            "items": {
-              "type": "string"
-            },
-            "type": "array"
-          },
-          "status": {
-            "enum": [
-              "adequate",
-              "negligible",
-              "not_assessed",
-              "weak",
-              "concern",
-              "blocking"
-            ],
-            "type": "string"
-          }
-        },
-        "required": [
-          "dimension",
-          "status"
-        ],
-        "type": "object"
-      },
-      "type": "array"
-    },
-    "effect": {
-      "additionalProperties": true,
-      "type": "object"
-    },
-    "metric": {
-      "type": "string"
-    }
-  },
-  "required": [
-    "metric",
-    "analysis",
-    "dimensions"
-  ],
-  "type": "object"
-}

changedOutput schema / required

Previous value: -[
-  "metric",
-  "range",
-  "trend",
-  "claim",
-  "evidence",
-  "evidence_profile",
-  "claim_decision"
-]New value: +[
+  "metric",
+  "range",
+  "trend",
+  "claim",
+  "evidence"
+]

Changed8 schema fields changedv1.0.26Sep 25, 2026

addedOutput schema / properties / claim

Added value: +{
+  "description": "Evidence and decision for the trend claim; read claim.decision before reporting it.",
+  "properties": {
+    "decision": {
+      "description": "How strongly this claim may be stated. tier is insufficient, suggestive, detectable_not_meaningful or supported; every entry in must_state has to be mentioned when reporting it.",
+      "properties": {
+        "must_state": {
+          "items": {
+            "type": "string"
+          },
+          "type": "array"
+        },
+        "permitted_phrasing_class": {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        "template": {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        "tier": {
+          "type": "string"
+        }
+      },
+      "required": [
+        "tier",
+        "permitted_phrasing_class",
+        "must_state",
+        "template"
+      ],
+      "type": "object"
+    },
+    "evidence": {
+      "description": "Descriptive data coverage behind this claim.",
+      "properties": {
+        "confidence": {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        "coverage_ratio": {
+          "type": "number"
+        },
+        "expected_days": {
+          "type": "integer"
+        },
+        "freshness_days": {
+          "anyOf": [
+            {
+              "type": "integer"
+            },
+            {
+              "type": "null"
+            }
+          ],
+          "default": null
+        },
+        "gaps": {
+          "items": {
+            "properties": {
+              "days": {
+                "type": "integer"
+              },
+              "end": {
+                "type": "string"
+              },
+              "start": {
+                "type": "string"
+              }
+            },
+            "required": [
+              "start",
+              "end",
+              "days"
+            ],
+            "type": "object"
+          },
+          "type": "array"
+        },
+        "measurement_count": {
+          "type": "integer"
+        },
+        "missing_days": {
+          "type": "integer"
+        },
+        "observed_days": {
+          "type": "integer"
+        },
+        "observed_end": {
+          "anyOf": [
+            {
+              "type": "string"
+            },
+            {
+              "type": "null"
+            }
+          ],
+          "default": null
+        },
+        "observed_start": {
+          "anyOf": [
+            {
+              "type": "string"
+            },
+            {
+              "type": "null"
+            }
+          ],
+          "default": null
+        },
+        "recent_gap_days": {
+          "type": "integer"
+        },
+        "requested_end": {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        "requested_start": {
+          "type": "string"
+        }
+      },
+      "required": [
+        "requested_start",
+        "requested_end",
+        "expected_days",
+        "observed_days",
+        "coverage_ratio",
+        "missing_days",
+        "measurement_count",
+        "gaps",
+        "recent_gap_days",
+        "confidence"
+      ],
+      "type": "object"
+    },
+    "profile": {
+      "description": "Per-dimension evidence quality behind this claim (sample, temporal, missingness, ...). Dimensions without an evaluator yet are 'not_assessed' and cap the claim, never count as adequate.",
+      "properties": {
+        "analysis": {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        "dimensions": {
+          "items": {
+            "properties": {
+              "can_block": {
+                "default": true,
+                "type": "boolean"
+              },
+              "details": {
+                "additionalProperties": true,
+                "type": "object"
+              },
+              "dimension": {
+                "enum": [
+                  "sample",
+                  "temporal",
+                  "robustness",
+                  "missingness",
+                  "practical",
+                  "measurement_validity",
+                  "provenance"
+                ],
+                "type": "string"
+              },
+              "reason_codes": {
+                "items": {
+                  "type": "string"
+                },
+                "type": "array"
+              },
+              "status": {
+                "enum": [
+                  "adequate",
+                  "negligible",
+                  "not_assessed",
+                  "weak",
+                  "concern",
+                  "blocking"
+                ],
+                "type": "string"
+              }
+            },
+            "required": [
+              "dimension",
+              "status"
+            ],
+            "type": "object"
+          },
+          "type": "array"
+        },
+        "effect": {
+          "additionalProperties": true,
+          "type": "object"
+        },
+        "metric": {
+          "type": "string"
+        }
+      },
+      "required": [
+        "metric",
+        "analysis",
+        "dimensions"
+      ],
+      "type": "object"
+    }
+  },
+  "required": [
+    "evidence",
+    "profile",
+    "decision"
+  ],
+  "type": "object"
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / claim_decision / deprecated
```
Added value: +true
```

changedOutput schema / properties / claim_decision / description

Previous value: -"How strongly this result may be stated. tier is insufficient, suggestive, detectable_not_meaningful or supported; every entry in must_state has to be mentioned when reporting it."New value: +"DEPRECATED: identical to claim.decision. Use claim.decision instead."

addedOutput schema / properties / evidence / deprecated
```
Added value: +true
```

changedOutput schema / properties / evidence / description

Previous value: -"Coverage/quality of the data a single-metric analytical result is\nbased on. See evidence.build_evidence for how each field is computed."New value: +"DEPRECATED: identical to claim.evidence. Use claim.decision, not evidence.confidence."

addedOutput schema / properties / evidence_profile / deprecated
```
Added value: +true
```

changedOutput schema / properties / evidence_profile / description

Previous value: -"Per-dimension evidence quality behind this result (sample, temporal, missingness, ...). Dimensions without an evaluator yet are 'not_assessed' and cap the claim, never count as adequate."New value: +"DEPRECATED: identical to claim.profile. Use claim.decision instead."

changedOutput schema / required

Previous value: -[
-  "evidence_profile",
-  "claim_decision",
-  "metric",
-  "range",
-  "trend",
-  "evidence"
-]New value: +[
+  "metric",
+  "range",
+  "trend",
+  "claim",
+  "evidence",
+  "evidence_profile",
+  "claim_decision"
+]

Changed11 schema fields changedv1.0.23Sep 24, 2026

removedOutput schema / properties / claim_decision / anyOf

Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "properties": {
-      "must_state": {
-        "items": {
-          "type": "string"
-        },
-        "type": "array"
-      },
-      "permitted_phrasing_class": {
-        "type": "string"
-      },
-      "template": {
-        "type": "string"
-      },
-      "tier": {
-        "type": "string"
-      }
-    },
-    "required": [
-      "tier",
-      "permitted_phrasing_class",
-      "must_state",
-      "template"
-    ],
-    "type": "object"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]

removedOutput schema / properties / claim_decision / default
```
Removed value: -null
```

addedOutput schema / properties / claim_decision / properties

Added value: +{
+  "must_state": {
+    "items": {
+      "type": "string"
+    },
+    "type": "array"
+  },
+  "permitted_phrasing_class": {
+    "type": "string"
+  },
+  "template": {
+    "type": "string"
+  },
+  "tier": {
+    "type": "string"
+  }
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / claim_decision / required

Added value: +[
+  "tier",
+  "permitted_phrasing_class",
+  "must_state",
+  "template"
+]

addedOutput schema / properties / claim_decision / type
```
Added value: +"object"
```

removedOutput schema / properties / evidence_profile / anyOf

Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "properties": {
-      "analysis": {
-        "type": "string"
-      },
-      "dimensions": {
-        "items": {
-          "properties": {
-            "can_block": {
-              "default": true,
-              "type": "boolean"
-            },
-            "details": {
-              "additionalProperties": true,
-              "type": "object"
-            },
-            "dimension": {
-              "enum": [
-                "sample",
-                "temporal",
-                "robustness",
-                "missingness",
-                "practical",
-                "measurement_validity",
-                "provenance"
-              ],
-              "type": "string"
-            },
-            "reason_codes": {
-              "items": {
-                "type": "string"
-              },
-              "type": "array"
-            },
-            "status": {
-              "enum": [
-                "adequate",
-                "negligible",
-                "not_assessed",
-                "weak",
-                "concern",
-                "blocking"
-              ],
-              "type": "string"
-            }
-          },
-          "required": [
-            "dimension",
-            "status"
-          ],
-          "type": "object"
-        },
-        "type": "array"
-      },
-      "effect": {
-        "additionalProperties": true,
-        "type": "object"
-      },
-      "metric": {
-        "type": "string"
-      }
-    },
-    "required": [
-      "metric",
-      "analysis",
-      "dimensions"
-    ],
-    "type": "object"
-  },
-  {
-    "type": "null"
-  }
-]

removedOutput schema / properties / evidence_profile / default
```
Removed value: -null
```

addedOutput schema / properties / evidence_profile / properties

Added value: +{
+  "analysis": {
+    "type": "string"
+  },
+  "dimensions": {
+    "items": {
+      "properties": {
+        "can_block": {
+          "default": true,
+          "type": "boolean"
+        },
+        "details": {
+          "additionalProperties": true,
+          "type": "object"
+        },
+        "dimension": {
+          "enum": [
+            "sample",
+            "temporal",
+            "robustness",
+            "missingness",
+            "practical",
+            "measurement_validity",
+            "provenance"
+          ],
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        "reason_codes": {
+          "items": {
+            "type": "string"
+          },
+          "type": "array"
+        },
+        "status": {
+          "enum": [
+            "adequate",
+            "negligible",
+            "not_assessed",
+            "weak",
+            "concern",
+            "blocking"
+          ],
+          "type": "string"
+        }
+      },
+      "required": [
+        "dimension",
+        "status"
+      ],
+      "type": "object"
+    },
+    "type": "array"
+  },
+  "effect": {
+    "additionalProperties": true,
+    "type": "object"
+  },
+  "metric": {
+    "type": "string"
+  }
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / evidence_profile / required

Added value: +[
+  "metric",
+  "analysis",
+  "dimensions"
+]

addedOutput schema / properties / evidence_profile / type
```
Added value: +"object"
```

changedOutput schema / required

Previous value: -[
-  "metric",
-  "range",
-  "trend",
-  "evidence"
-]New value: +[
+  "evidence_profile",
+  "claim_decision",
+  "metric",
+  "range",
+  "trend",
+  "evidence"
+]

Changed2 schema fields changedv1.0.20Sep 20, 2026

addedOutput schema / properties / claim_decision

Added value: +{
+  "anyOf": [
+    {
+      "properties": {
+        "must_state": {
+          "items": {
+            "type": "string"
+          },
+          "type": "array"
+        },
+        "permitted_phrasing_class": {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        "template": {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        "tier": {
+          "type": "string"
+        }
+      },
+      "required": [
+        "tier",
+        "permitted_phrasing_class",
+        "must_state",
+        "template"
+      ],
+      "type": "object"
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "null"
+    }
+  ],
+  "default": null,
+  "description": "How strongly this result may be stated. tier is insufficient, suggestive, detectable_not_meaningful or supported; every entry in must_state has to be mentioned when reporting it."
+}

addedOutput schema / properties / evidence_profile

Added value: +{
+  "anyOf": [
+    {
+      "properties": {
+        "analysis": {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        "dimensions": {
+          "items": {
+            "properties": {
+              "can_block": {
+                "default": true,
+                "type": "boolean"
+              },
+              "details": {
+                "additionalProperties": true,
+                "type": "object"
+              },
+              "dimension": {
+                "enum": [
+                  "sample",
+                  "temporal",
+                  "robustness",
+                  "missingness",
+                  "practical",
+                  "measurement_validity",
+                  "provenance"
+                ],
+                "type": "string"
+              },
+              "reason_codes": {
+                "items": {
+                  "type": "string"
+                },
+                "type": "array"
+              },
+              "status": {
+                "enum": [
+                  "adequate",
+                  "negligible",
+                  "not_assessed",
+                  "weak",
+                  "concern",
+                  "blocking"
+                ],
+                "type": "string"
+              }
+            },
+            "required": [
+              "dimension",
+              "status"
+            ],
+            "type": "object"
+          },
+          "type": "array"
+        },
+        "effect": {
+          "additionalProperties": true,
+          "type": "object"
+        },
+        "metric": {
+          "type": "string"
+        }
+      },
+      "required": [
+        "metric",
+        "analysis",
+        "dimensions"
+      ],
+      "type": "object"
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "null"
+    }
+  ],
+  "default": null,
+  "description": "Per-dimension evidence quality behind this result (sample, temporal, missingness, ...). Dimensions without an evaluator yet are 'not_assessed' and cap the claim, never count as adequate."
+}

Changed1 schema field changedv1.0.17Sep 16, 2026

addedOutput schema / properties / trend / properties / span_days

Added value: +{
+  "anyOf": [
+    {
+      "type": "integer"
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "null"
+    }
+  ],
+  "default": null
+}

Changed2 schema fields changedSep 15, 2026

addedOutput schema / properties / evidence

Added value: +{
+  "description": "Coverage/quality of the data a single-metric analytical result is\nbased on. See evidence.build_evidence for how each field is computed.",
+  "properties": {
+    "confidence": {
+      "type": "string"
+    },
+    "coverage_ratio": {
+      "type": "number"
+    },
+    "expected_days": {
+      "type": "integer"
+    },
+    "freshness_days": {
+      "anyOf": [
+        {
+          "type": "integer"
+        },
+        {
+          "type": "null"
+        }
+      ],
+      "default": null
+    },
+    "gaps": {
+      "items": {
+        "properties": {
+          "days": {
+            "type": "integer"
+          },
+          "end": {
+            "type": "string"
+          },
+          "start": {
+            "type": "string"
+          }
+        },
+        "required": [
+          "start",
+          "end",
+          "days"
+        ],
+        "type": "object"
+      },
+      "type": "array"
+    },
+    "measurement_count": {
+      "type": "integer"
+    },
+    "missing_days": {
+      "type": "integer"
+    },
+    "observed_days": {
+      "type": "integer"
+    },
+    "observed_end": {
+      "anyOf": [
+        {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        {
+          "type": "null"
+        }
+      ],
+      "default": null
+    },
+    "observed_start": {
+      "anyOf": [
+        {
+          "type": "string"
+        },
+        {
+          "type": "null"
+        }
+      ],
+      "default": null
+    },
+    "recent_gap_days": {
+      "type": "integer"
+    },
+    "requested_end": {
+      "type": "string"
+    },
+    "requested_start": {
+      "type": "string"
+    }
+  },
+  "required": [
+    "requested_start",
+    "requested_end",
+    "expected_days",
+    "observed_days",
+    "coverage_ratio",
+    "missing_days",
+    "measurement_count",
+    "gaps",
+    "recent_gap_days",
+    "confidence"
+  ],
+  "type": "object"
+}

changedOutput schema / required

Previous value: -[
-  "metric",
-  "range",
-  "trend"
-]New value: +[
+  "metric",
+  "range",
+  "trend",
+  "evidence"
+]

Addedv1.0.16Sep 15, 2026
Removedv1.0.15Sep 15, 2026
Addedv1.0.11Sep 13, 2026

TDQS

A4.6/5.0

Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare read-only, idempotent, non-destructive behavior, and the description adds genuinely new context on top: how to interpret r_squared (low = noisy, not flat) and an explicit privacy disclosure that local data becomes part of the conversation sent to the calling client's model. That privacy/egress caveat is behavioral information no structured field provides.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Front-loaded with the core action and its outputs, then structured into scannable when/when-not bullets. The privacy paragraph is longer than the rest but earns its place by flagging a non-obvious data-handling consequence.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite an output schema existing (so return values need not be explained), the description still clarifies the meaning of the key returned statistic. Combined with the branching guidance and privacy note, an agent has everything needed to select and call this correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, including the enumerated metric values and the start/end date defaults, so the schema carries the parameter burden. The description only restates 'one metric over a window' without adding format or edge-case detail beyond the schema, which is the baseline-3 case.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb and resource ('fit a simple straight-line trend to one metric over a window') and enumerates the exact outputs (direction, slope per day, r_squared). It also disambiguates itself from three named siblings, so an agent can distinguish it without opening any schema.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit 'use this tool when' and 'do not use this tool when' sections, each routing to a concrete alternative (compare_metric_periods, get_baseline, detect_metric_anomalies) with the exact user phrasing that selects each one. Nothing about tool selection is left to inference.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

Calculate metric trend

Instructions

Input Schema

Output Schema

Schema Changelog

TDQS

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