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f1_simulate_championship

Read-onlyIdempotent

Estimate F1 drivers' championship title probabilities for remaining races and sprints using Monte Carlo simulation and exact elimination math.

Instructions

Estimate each driver's F1 drivers' title probability for the rest of a season.

Monte Carlo over the remaining races and sprints (Plackett-Luce finishing orders weighted by each driver's season points rate), plus exact elimination maths: a driver who cannot catch the leader's current points even by winning every remaining race and sprint has title_prob 0.0. This is not a cricket or football tool.

Args: year: Championship season (2018-2030, default 2026). iterations: Monte Carlo iterations, clamped to 1000-20000 (default 10000). seed: Optional RNG seed for reproducible probabilities.

Returns: data.drivers: [{code, points_now, title_prob, expected_points, eliminated, max_possible}] sorted by title_prob. data.max_remaining_points: most points one driver can still score. data.rounds_remaining: races left after the last completed round. meta.estimated: true. meta.model: "plackett-luce-points-rate". meta.is_stale: true if standings or schedule came from stale cache.

Input Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
seedNoOptional RNG seed for reproducible probabilities.
yearNoChampionship season (2018-2030, default 2026).
iterationsNoMonte Carlo iterations, clamped to 1000-20000 (default 10000).

Output Schema

NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
dataNo
metaNo
errorNo

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections.

  1. Addedv0.4.0

TDQS

A4.1/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already cover the safety profile (readOnly, idempotent, openWorld), and the description goes well beyond them: it names the simulation method (Plackett-Luce weighted Monte Carlo), discloses the exact-elimination rule producing title_prob 0.0, documents iteration clamping, and flags meta.is_stale for cached standings/schedule. That is the kind of caveat an agent needs to interpret results correctly.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Purpose and caveats are front-loaded and the argument list is compact. The Returns block duplicates what the output schema already declares, which is mild waste, though the model/staleness meta notes do earn their place.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With annotations, a full output schema, and 100% parameter coverage, the description supplies everything essential: scope, method, edge cases, and cache caveats. The only soft gaps are the odd sport disambiguation line and no note on latency or what to do when is_stale is true.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, and the Args block largely restates the schema text (year range, iteration clamp, seed purpose) rather than adding new meaning. Baseline 3 is appropriate since the schema already carries the semantics.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

States a specific verb and resource ('Estimate each driver's F1 drivers' title probability for the rest of a season') and immediately names the model behind it. The explicit 'This is not a cricket or football tool' line, plus the F1-season framing, separates it from both the cross-sport siblings and the F1 data-only tools.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines3/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Usage is implied by 'for the rest of a season', and elimination maths shows one case where output is degenerate. But there is no explicit when-to-use vs. f1_get_standings (current table) or guidance on whether to call this before/after f1_get_race_results; the agent has to infer the fit.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.