f1_simulate_championship
Estimate F1 drivers' championship title probabilities for remaining races and sprints using Monte Carlo simulation and exact elimination math.
Instructions
Estimate each driver's F1 drivers' title probability for the rest of a season.
Monte Carlo over the remaining races and sprints (Plackett-Luce finishing orders weighted by each driver's season points rate), plus exact elimination maths: a driver who cannot catch the leader's current points even by winning every remaining race and sprint has title_prob 0.0. This is not a cricket or football tool.
Args: year: Championship season (2018-2030, default 2026). iterations: Monte Carlo iterations, clamped to 1000-20000 (default 10000). seed: Optional RNG seed for reproducible probabilities.
Returns: data.drivers: [{code, points_now, title_prob, expected_points, eliminated, max_possible}] sorted by title_prob. data.max_remaining_points: most points one driver can still score. data.rounds_remaining: races left after the last completed round. meta.estimated: true. meta.model: "plackett-luce-points-rate". meta.is_stale: true if standings or schedule came from stale cache.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| seed | No | Optional RNG seed for reproducible probabilities. | |
| year | No | Championship season (2018-2030, default 2026). | |
| iterations | No | Monte Carlo iterations, clamped to 1000-20000 (default 10000). |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| data | No | ||
| meta | No | ||
| error | No |