forecast_baseline
Generate baseline time-series forecasts with 95% intervals and an honest holdout backtest to evaluate forecast accuracy.
Instructions
Baseline forecast with 95% intervals and an honest holdout backtest.
Tool call template
Replace each placeholder with a value matching the input schema. Only required parameters are included; add optional parameters as needed.
{
"id": 1,
"jsonrpc": "2.0",
"method": "tools/call",
"params": {
"arguments": {
"series_id": "<series_id>"
},
"name": "forecast_baseline"
}
}Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| method | No | Reference methods per Hyndman FPP3; every result includes a holdout backtest. | naive |
| period | No | Seasonal period, required for seasonal_naive. | |
| horizon | No | Steps ahead to forecast. | |
| series_id | Yes |
Output Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| notes | Yes | ||
| method | Yes | ||
| horizon | Yes | ||
| backtest | Yes | Holdout accuracy of the chosen baseline method. | |
| forecasts | Yes | ||
| series_id | Yes |