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Lkhanaajav

timeseries-mcp

by Lkhanaajav

forecast_baseline

Generate baseline time-series forecasts with 95% intervals and an honest holdout backtest to evaluate forecast accuracy.

Instructions

Baseline forecast with 95% intervals and an honest holdout backtest.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
methodNoReference methods per Hyndman FPP3; every result includes a holdout backtest.naive
periodNoSeasonal period, required for seasonal_naive.
horizonNoSteps ahead to forecast.
series_idYes

Output Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
notesYes
methodYes
horizonYes
backtestYesHoldout accuracy of the chosen baseline method.
forecastsYes
series_idYes
Behavior2/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

No annotations provided, so description carries full burden. Mentions intervals and backtest but does not disclose whether the tool is read-only, modifies data, requires permissions, or has side effects. A baseline forecast is likely non-destructive but not explicitly stated.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Single sentence, front-loaded with key information, no unnecessary words. Every part is essential.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness3/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given 4 parameters, good schema coverage, and presence of output schema, the description is adequate but not complete. It lacks usage guidance and behavioral details that would help an agent decide when to invoke this tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 75% (3 of 4 params described). The description does not add meaning beyond the schema; it only repeats 'baseline' and 'intervals' which are not parameter-specific. Baseline 3 is appropriate.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Description clearly states it's a baseline forecast tool with 95% intervals and holdout backtest. The verb 'forecast' and resource 'baseline' are specific, and it distinguishes from sibling tools like detect_anomalies or decompose.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines2/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

No explicit guidance on when to use this tool vs alternatives. Does not mention when not to use or compare to other forecasting methods. The description only states what it does without context.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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