hand_probability
Read-onlyIdempotent
Calculate the exact hypergeometric probability of drawing a specific card category by a given turn. Supports decklist validation to prevent miscounts.
Instructions
Compute the exact hypergeometric probability of seeing a card category.
Answers questions like "what are the odds I've seen at least 1 of my 3 tutors by turn 4?" via the closed-form hypergeometric distribution.
Pass decklist + category_filter to have the count MEASURED rather than
stated. A probability computed from a number nobody re-checked is the failure this
guards against: a category declared at 13 that had quietly become 11 moved the
headline statistic by 6.5 points, unnoticed across every revision.
Input Schema
TableJSON Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| copies | No | Number of matching cards in the deck | |
| decklist | No | The actual decklist. Supplied with category_filter, 'copies' is counted from it instead of trusted, and any disagreement is reported as drift. | |
| deck_size | No | Total cards in the library (default 99 for Commander) | |
| max_count | No | Maximum matching cards to count as a hit (inclusive, default: no cap) | |
| min_count | No | Minimum matching cards to count as a hit (inclusive) | |
| cards_seen | No | Cards drawn/seen so far (default 7 for an opening hand) | |
| category_filter | No | Filter defining the category to count in decklist, e.g. 'mv<=1 t:creature'. Supports mv/cmc comparisons, t:, o:, name:, kw:. |