# Pickaxe — Public Paper-Call Ledger

An append-only, timestamped record of 1184 paper prediction-market calls,
logged BEFORE resolution with their decision-time information set.

**What this is:** the raw ledger behind the pickaxe analytics operation. Every row is
written at entry time and never edited; resolutions append the outcome. Integrity is
structural (append-only jsonl), not claimed.

**What this is NOT:** trading advice, a signal service, or a pitch. No deployed capital
exists. The bankroll is gated and locked by policy until two independent replications
pass. Analytics framing only.

**Schema (public fields):** serial, ts (entry), market_ctx, slug, track, edge_signal,
edge_pct, status, strategy_version, evidence_class, resolution_ts, resolution_px,
resolved_yes, entry_mid, entry_spread, entry_hours, direction, side, venue_prob,
forecast_prob, entry_price, data_cutoff_ts, drift_model, market_type.

**Honesty note (2026-08-08):** our flagship strategy (Track C momentum cell) failed its
pre-registered blind trial — futility stop at n=66, mean EV -0.0456/call, robust to
event clustering. The loss is published in full (see TRACK_C_TRIAL_RESULTS.md). We kill
our own losers; the ledger shows the scars.

**Live stats:** see ledger_stats.json (per-category breakdown: esports is segmented from traditional sports — the ledger is ~80% esports).

**Agent API (x402 — pay per call, USDC):**
- `GET https://data.brain-de-le-jstew.com/api/ledger/stats` — $0.02 · full analytics
- `GET https://data.brain-de-le-jstew.com/api/ledger/recent?limit=N` — $0.02 · recent entries
- `GET https://data.brain-de-le-jstew.com/api/f1/live?sport=ufc` — $0.05 · live Polymarket + Kalshi prices (sports, politics, crypto, weather, metals, economics, tech, health, culture — filter by any scope; 5-15 min fresh)
- `GET https://data.brain-de-le-jstew.com/api/f1/history?event_id=X` — $0.05 · per-event price series
- Free samples: `/api/ledger/sample`, `/api/f1/sample`. Discovery: `/.well-known/x402` (x402 protocol; listed on 402index.io, domain-verified).

**MCP server (`x402-mcp-server.py`):** exposes the same paid endpoints as MCP tools (`predictedge_ledger_stats`, `predictedge_ledger_recent`, `predictedge_f1_live`, `predictedge_f1_history`, `predictedge_f1_sample`, `predictedge_about`) — run it with your MCP client (`uv run x402-mcp-server.py` / `python x402-mcp-server.py`). Unpaid calls return the x402 PAYMENT-REQUIRED challenge with the exact quote to sign.