Pickaxe — Public Paper-Call Ledger

An append-only, timestamped record of 1184 paper prediction-market calls, logged BEFORE resolution with their decision-time information set.

What this is: the raw ledger behind the pickaxe analytics operation. Every row is written at entry time and never edited; resolutions append the outcome. Integrity is structural (append-only jsonl), not claimed.

What this is NOT: trading advice, a signal service, or a pitch. No deployed capital exists. The bankroll is gated and locked by policy until two independent replications pass. Analytics framing only.

Schema (public fields): serial, ts (entry), market_ctx, slug, track, edge_signal, edge_pct, status, strategy_version, evidence_class, resolution_ts, resolution_px, resolved_yes, entry_mid, entry_spread, entry_hours, direction, side, venue_prob, forecast_prob, entry_price, data_cutoff_ts, drift_model, market_type.

Honesty note (2026-08-08): our flagship strategy (Track C momentum cell) failed its pre-registered blind trial — futility stop at n=66, mean EV -0.0456/call, robust to event clustering. The loss is published in full (see TRACK_C_TRIAL_RESULTS.md). We kill our own losers; the ledger shows the scars.

Live stats: see ledger_stats.json (per-category breakdown: esports is segmented from traditional sports — the ledger is ~80% esports).

Agent API (x402 — pay per call, USDC):

• GET https://data.brain-de-le-jstew.com/api/ledger/stats — $0.02 · full analytics

• GET https://data.brain-de-le-jstew.com/api/ledger/recent?limit=N — $0.02 · recent entries

• GET https://data.brain-de-le-jstew.com/api/f1/live?sport=ufc — $0.05 · live Polymarket + Kalshi prices (sports, politics, crypto, weather, metals, economics, tech, health, culture — filter by any scope; 5-15 min fresh)

• GET https://data.brain-de-le-jstew.com/api/f1/history?event_id=X — $0.05 · per-event price series

• Free samples: /api/ledger/sample, /api/f1/sample. Discovery: /.well-known/x402 (x402 protocol; listed on 402index.io, domain-verified).

MCP server (x402-mcp-server.py): exposes the same paid endpoints as MCP tools (predictedge_ledger_stats, predictedge_ledger_recent, predictedge_f1_live, predictedge_f1_history, predictedge_f1_sample, predictedge_about) — run it with your MCP client (uv run x402-mcp-server.py / python x402-mcp-server.py). Unpaid calls return the x402 PAYMENT-REQUIRED challenge with the exact quote to sign.