Russia–NATO risk ladder

Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).

Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.

Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.

Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.

Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.

Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).

Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.

The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.