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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already signal readOnly, idempotent, non-destructive behavior, and the description goes well beyond that by disclosing the token-overlap matching approach, the meaning of compatibility codes, the gross-vs-net fee limitation, and the fact that unclassified or unknown legs are never paired. It also explains null behavior for temporal_alignment, adding genuinely useful safety context.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but densely informative, with the core purpose in the first sentence and clear labeled sections for modes, response fields, safety fields, codes, and fee disclaimers. A few concepts are restated for emphasis, but the structure helps an agent parse the complexity without losing important caveats.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool has no output schema, the description compensates thoroughly by enumerating key response components: leg prices, top_spreads_pp, compatibility_warning, compatibility_codes, temporal_alignment, fees_note, and skipped counters. It also explains edge cases like unclassified legs, unknown temporal alignment, and non-equivalent bet shapes, making the tool safe and usable without external documentation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The input schema already has 100% description coverage for all three parameters and includes examples, so the baseline is 3. The description adds meaning beyond the schema by explaining that both modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, that explicit tickers override topic mappings, and that pre-mapped topics are not guaranteed to be tradeable—this nuance helps an agent choose and combine parameters correctly.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly identifies the tool's function: computing a cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. It specifies two operational modes—pre-mapped topic shortcuts and explicit event pairings—and distinguishes the tool from nearby siblings by naming the two venues and the spread concept.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides clear context for when to use the tool: whenever a Kalshi-Polymarket spread on an equivalent question is needed, and explains both input modes plus the caveat that most pre-mapped topics may not currently yield tradeable pairs. It does not explicitly contrast against alternatives like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edges, so it falls short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools are near-identical in purpose: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded all route the same style of question, and the company-research tools (entity_profile, compare_entities, recent_changes) and Polymarket tools (polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, bet_research) have overlapping triggers. The long descriptions help, but an agent could easily select the wrong one.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are snake_case and mostly readable, but conventions are mixed: some are verb-led (ask_pipeworx, resolve_entity, scan_dependency), some are noun-led (entity_profile, pipeworx_feedback, polymarket_arbitrage), and some are adjective-noun phrases (recent_changes, recent_alerts). The polymarket_* and ask_pipeworx_* families are internally consistent, but the overall set has no unifying pattern.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is high and the server bundles several unrelated domains: Pipeworx data research, prediction markets, PRIDE proteomics, memory, subscriptions, and AI-visibility checks. Each cluster is individually useful, but the aggregate surface feels over-stuffed rather than well-scoped for a single MCP server.

Completeness4/5

The main clusters are well covered: query/grounded/deep research, entity resolution/profile/compare/validate, memory CRUD, subscription lifecycle, and a rich Polymarket analytics toolkit. Minor gaps exist—PRIDE is limited to metadata search/get and there is no trade execution for prediction markets—but most workflows can be completed without dead ends.