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Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

TDQS

A4.5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the annotations by detailing the internal model families (crypto_price, news_momentum, partition_overround, concentrated_longshot), per-sport alpha values, filter logic (placeholder slug filter, partition skip threshold), the 24h-move warning, caching behavior (1h at KV level), and diagnostics. This rich behavioral context is additive to the readOnly/openWorld/idempotent hints, which it does not contradict.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense and lengthy, cramming model details, per-sport alphas, gate thresholds, and diagnostics into a wall of text. It is somewhat structured with bolded segment labels (MODEL_DRIVEN, STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE, etc.), which aids navigation, but not every sentence earns its place—e.g., specific α values could be externalized. It is not concise; it is thorough but overstuffed.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's high complexity and absence of an output schema, the description covers everything needed: the top-level response structure (by_segment, fed_candidates, _diagnostics), per-opportunity fields (edge_pp_net, kelly_fraction, liquidity), the tradeable-edge knobs, and the Fed candidates exclusion rationale. It also explains caching and why segments may be empty, providing a complete picture for an agent.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the input schema provides 100% parameter coverage, the description adds meaningful grouping and behavioral nuance: 'TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS' groups min_liquidity/max_spread_pp, and it explains that min_kelly does not apply to partition arbs, pointing to min_partition_leg_kelly instead. It also gives actionable advice (e.g., 'Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model'), which is beyond the schema's descriptive sentences.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource: 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price.' This clearly states the tool's purpose and distinguishes it from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage (which likely finds cross-market discrepancies) and polymarket_edge_tracker (which suggests historical tracking). The 'what should I bet on today' phrase grounds the use case.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear context for when to use it ('Built for "what should I bet on today"—agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets') and explains usage knobs (e.g., min_liquidity, max_spread_pp) and the tradeable-edge concept. However, it does not explicitly name alternatives or state when not to use it relative to siblings, so it falls short of a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several clusters of tools overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all answer data questions; entity_profile, compare_entities, and recent_changes all pull company data; polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, and bet_research all analyze prediction markets. Though descriptions are detailed, the boundaries are subtle and the beta variant is nearly identical to the stable one.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most names are snake_case, but there's no consistent verb_noun pattern: some are bare nouns (disease, target, drug, search), some are verb phrases (resolve_entity, validate_claim, generate_llms_txt), and some are domain-prefixed (ask_pipeworx_*, polymarket_*, target_*). The mixed conventions make it hard to predict tool names.

Tool Count2/5

38 tools is far beyond the typical well-scoped server, and the set mixes Open Targets lookup, a general data platform (Pipeworx), prediction markets, npm package checks, and AI-marketing utilities under the name 'Opentargets'. Many tools are unrelated to the server's apparent core purpose.

Completeness4/5

The Open Targets drug-discovery workflow is well covered: search for IDs, get disease/drug/target profiles, and get associations/known drugs. However, the broader platform lacks some lifecycle operations (no create/update/delete since it's read-only), and the unrelated utilities (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency) appear tacked on rather than filling domain gaps.