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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes far beyond the readOnly/idempotent annotations by disclosing operational behaviors such as the semantic similarity threshold (∝0.30 Jaccard), placeholder filtering, and the fill check warning 'do not trade it' when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0. These details help the agent understand limits and pitfalls.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-structured with bolded section headers (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and every sentence carries operational value. It is not verbose in a wasteful way, but could be slightly tighter without losing critical context.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description enumerates the response fields (opportunities[], partition_check, fill_check) and covers all modes, edge cases, and caveats. It is self-sufficient for a complex tool and even references a sibling tool for related functionality.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the schema covers both parameters, the description enriches them with contextual examples (e.g., 'fed-decision-may-2026'), explains the behavior of each mode, and introduces a no-arg mode not visible in the schema. It clearly explains what to pass for each scenario and what happens internally.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks', clearly stating the verb (Find), resource (arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket), and unique methodology. It distinguishes itself from sibling tools like polymarket_edges by focusing specifically on arbitrage detection rather than edge tracking or fill risk.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit usage modes: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'pass event' for a specific market, or 'topic' for cross-event scanning. It recommends `event` for specific markets and points to an alternative tool: 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.' This gives clear when-to-use and alternative guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several clusters of tools overlap heavily: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all answer data questions; entity_profile, compare_entities, and recent_changes all pull company data; polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, and bet_research all analyze prediction markets. Though descriptions are detailed, the boundaries are subtle and the beta variant is nearly identical to the stable one.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most names are snake_case, but there's no consistent verb_noun pattern: some are bare nouns (disease, target, drug, search), some are verb phrases (resolve_entity, validate_claim, generate_llms_txt), and some are domain-prefixed (ask_pipeworx_*, polymarket_*, target_*). The mixed conventions make it hard to predict tool names.

Tool Count2/5

38 tools is far beyond the typical well-scoped server, and the set mixes Open Targets lookup, a general data platform (Pipeworx), prediction markets, npm package checks, and AI-marketing utilities under the name 'Opentargets'. Many tools are unrelated to the server's apparent core purpose.

Completeness4/5

The Open Targets drug-discovery workflow is well covered: search for IDs, get disease/drug/target profiles, and get associations/known drugs. However, the broader platform lacks some lifecycle operations (no create/update/delete since it's read-only), and the unrelated utilities (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency) appear tacked on rather than filling domain gaps.

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