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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Discloses behavioral traits beyond annotations: Jaccard similarity threshold (≥0.30), placeholder fraction filter (>20% → null), fill check against live CLOB depth, and output structure. No contradiction with annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint).

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is thorough but slightly verbose. Every sentence adds value, and it is well-structured with sections for modes, semantic anchor, partition filter, fill check. Could be tightened slightly, but no unnecessary fluff.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description details the response fields (opportunities[], partition_check, fill check results). Covers edge cases like skipped_low_similarity, placeholder filtering, and references related tool for custom sizing. Highly complete for a complex tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with two parameters. Description adds extensive meaning: explains modes, example slugs, internal processing (walks child markets, partition checks, semantic anchor), and cross-event behavior. Complements schema effectively.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states it finds arbitrage opportunities via monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks. It distinguishes itself from sibling tools like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by specifying its unique mechanism and modes (event and topic). Examples of usage are provided.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicit guidance on when to use each mode: no args for trending scan, event for specific market, topic for cross-event scan. Recommends event for strongest partition check. Also warns when not to trade (realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0) and points to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Severe overlap exists between ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research, all of which route to the same 5,743-tool catalog with only subtle differences. The pair resolve (CURIE-to-URL) and resolve_entity (name-to-ID) share the same verb but mean completely different things in different domains, and the five polymarket tools have heavily overlapping purposes.

Naming Consistency2/5

The set mixes multiple conventions: noun-only names (prefix, prefixes, search, resolve), verb_noun names (generate_llms_txt, scan_dependency, validate_claim), adjective_noun names (recent_alerts, recent_changes), and vendor-prefixed names (ask_pipeworx*, pipeworx_*, polymarket_*). Some names break the pattern entirely, like forget and remember, and the plural prefix/prefixes pair is inconsistent.

Tool Count2/5

35 tools is heavy for any single server, but the bigger problem is that roughly 31 tools are Pipeworx platform utilities (asking, memory, subscriptions, feedback) while only 4 serve the stated 'Bioregistry' purpose. A server named Bioregistry carrying prediction-market arbitrage and AI-visibility tools is poorly scoped regardless of the absolute count.

Completeness2/5

The Bioregistry surface is thin: search, prefix, prefixes, and resolve cover lookup/pagination but no registry management, and the remaining tools belong to an entirely different, unrelated domain. The server's apparent purpose ('Bioregistry') is barely served, while the Pipeworx functionality, though broad, is buried under an incongruent server name, making the overall surface incomplete and incoherent.