Search Polymarket for crowd-sourced probability estimates.

Use this tool when the user asks "what are the odds of X?" for any macro-relevant event — Fed rate decisions, elections, geopolitical outcomes, commodities. Returns up to limit active markets matching the query, each with implied probability (0-100), USDC volume, and end date. Polymarket data is crowd-sourced, not an official forecast.

Example: get_prediction_odds("fed rate cut december", limit=3)

Fetch a single Polymarket event's implied probability by id or slug.

Useful when you already have a Polymarket event identifier (from a prior search, a URL, or an external reference) and want the current odds without re-searching.

Return the latest public ADS-B state vector for a registered aircraft.

Accepts either an FAA N-Number (e.g. N12345, N123AB) or a 6-char ICAO24 hex (e.g. a061d9). N-Numbers are converted in-process first; on failure the FAA public registry is consulted as a fallback.

Returns position (lat/lon), barometric altitude (m), ground speed (m/s), heading (°), on-ground flag, and last-contact timestamp. Requires OPENSKY_CLIENT_ID + OPENSKY_CLIENT_SECRET (OAuth2, preferred) or OPENSKY_USERNAME + OPENSKY_PASSWORD (Basic Auth, legacy).

Convert between an FAA N-Number and its ICAO24 hex address.

Input detection is automatic: a leading N followed by digits/letters is treated as an N-Number; a 6-character hex string as an ICAO24. Returns both forms plus mode = "n_to_icao" or "icao_to_n". Useful for cross-referencing aviation data sources that use different identifiers.

Fetch recent high-impact GDELT 2.0 events for a country.

GDELT publishes a new global event export every 15 minutes. Events are coded with a Goldstein scale from -10 (destabilizing) to +10 (stabilizing). Pass a 3-letter GDELT country code (e.g. USA, CHN, RUS) or 2-letter FIPS code depending on dataset version.

Results are sorted by Goldstein scale descending and capped at limit. Each event returns actor country codes, Goldstein score, article count, and a source URL.

Check Cloudflare Radar for BGP and internet-outage anomalies.

Input formats:

• 2-letter country code (US, CN, IR) → checks BGP hijacks, BGP route leaks, and regional outage annotations for that country.

• ASN string (AS15169, AS13335) → checks BGP hijacks and route leaks involving that ASN. Outage annotations require a country and are omitted for ASN-scoped queries.

Requires CLOUDFLARE_API_TOKEN with Radar read permission.

Composite macro-inflection signal for a region.

Runs three queries concurrently (GDELT events, BGP hijacks, outages) and emits a single signal_score with a one-line explanation of how the number was built. Partial failures are tolerated — if one source errors, the tool still returns the others and records the failure under errors.

Score weighting: |Goldstein| × log(1 + article_count) for each event; outages weighted by cause (government shutdowns dominate). Zero indicates a quiet region — the absence of signal is also information.