# polymarket-mcp

<!-- mcp-name: io.github.whitmorelabs/polymarket-mcp -->

**Prediction market intelligence for AI agents.** Wallet scores, arbitrage detection, liquidity analysis, and real-time price feeds for Polymarket — backed by proprietary data from 195+ curated on-chain wallets.

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[![Python](https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.10%2B-blue)](https://python.org)

---

## What can it do?

Ask your AI agent:

- "Find all Polymarket markets where YES + NO prices don't add up to 100%"
- "What's the slippage if I buy $500 of YES on the Bitcoin $100k market?"
- "Show me the top 20 wallets on Polymarket by score and PnL"
- "Which wallets co-trade alongside this whale? Find the shadow network."
- "What's the liquidity grade for this market — is it safe to enter?"
- "Calculate my portfolio risk across these 5 positions"
- "What's the probability that Bitcoin hits $150k by June?"
- "Scan today's crypto news and match to open Polymarket markets"

---

## Install

```bash
pip install polymarket-trading-mcp
```

Or run directly:

```bash
uvx --python 3.11 polymarket-trading-mcp
```

---

## MCP Config

<details>
<summary><strong>Claude Desktop</strong></summary>

Add to your `claude_desktop_config.json`:

```json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "polymarket": {
      "command": "polymarket-mcp",
      "args": ["--stdio"]
    }
  }
}
```

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>Cursor / Windsurf / other MCP clients</strong></summary>

Run as SSE server:

```bash
polymarket-mcp
# Starts on http://127.0.0.1:8000/sse
```

Run as streamable HTTP:

```bash
polymarket-mcp --http
# Starts on http://127.0.0.1:8000/mcp
```

Then point your client at `http://127.0.0.1:8000/sse` or `http://127.0.0.1:8000/mcp`.

</details>

---

## How it compares

| Feature | polymarket-mcp | Manual CLOB calls | py-clob-client |
|---------|---------------|------------------|----------------|
| MCP integration | Yes | No | No |
| Slippage estimation | Yes | DIY | Partial |
| Arbitrage scanning | Yes | DIY | No |
| Wallet intelligence | Yes | No | No |
| Price feed (multi-source) | Yes | No | No |
| Probability engine | Yes | No | No |
| Portfolio risk math | Yes | No | No |
| AI agent ready | Yes | No | No |

---

## Tools

### Free Tools

<details>
<summary><strong>estimate_slippage</strong> — Estimate fill cost at different order sizes</summary>

Walk the CLOB order book and calculate average fill price for a given position size.

```python
estimate_slippage(
    market_id="71321045679252212594626385532587807886473352341859285086426388424842616389328",
    side="BUY",
    position_size_usd=500.0
)
```

Returns: `best_price`, `avg_fill_price`, `slippage_pct`, `liquidity_available`, `recommendation` (go/caution/no-go).

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>scan_market_liquidity</strong> — Liquidity depth, spread, and grade</summary>

Scan a market's liquidity depth with spread and depth at 1%/2%/5% from mid.

```python
scan_market_liquidity(market_id="71321045679252212594626385532587807886473352341859285086426388424842616389328")
```

Returns: `best_bid`, `best_ask`, `spread_pct`, depth buckets, `liquidity_grade` (A/B/C).

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>find_arbitrage_gaps</strong> — Scan all markets for YES+NO mispricing</summary>

Scan all active Polymarket markets for YES + NO price sums that don't equal 1.00.

```python
find_arbitrage_gaps(min_gap_pct=2.0)
```

Returns: markets with gaps, gap size, and direction to exploit (BUY_BOTH or SELL_BOTH).

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>get_crypto_price</strong> — Real-time prices from Binance and CoinGecko</summary>

Real-time crypto price from Binance and/or CoinGecko in parallel, with latency metadata.

```python
get_crypto_price(symbol="BTC", sources="binance,coingecko")
```

Returns: per-source prices, average, max deviation between sources.

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>get_contract_status</strong> — Time remaining and resolution status</summary>

Time remaining and resolution status for active Polymarket contracts. BTC 5-min/15-min contracts use slug timestamp parsing for exact expiry.

```python
get_contract_status(market_id="btc-updown-5m-1711234567")
get_contract_status(category="crypto")  # scan all short-duration contracts
```

Returns: `time_remaining_seconds`, `time_remaining_human`, `current_odds`.

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>estimate_probability</strong> — Structured probability reasoning for any question</summary>

Estimate the probability of any event using structured reasoning. Base rates, key factors, timeframe analysis — all in one structured JSON response.

```python
estimate_probability(question="Will Bitcoin reach $150k before end of 2025?")
```

Returns: `estimated_probability` (0-1), `confidence_level`, `factors_for`, `factors_against`, `base_rate_note`, `reasoning`.

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>calculate_portfolio_risk</strong> — Pure-math risk metrics across positions</summary>

Pure-math risk metrics for a portfolio of prediction market positions. No external API calls.

```python
calculate_portfolio_risk(positions='[{"market_id": "abc123", "side": "YES", "size": 200, "entry_price": 0.65}]')
```

Returns: `total_exposure`, `max_loss`, `max_gain`, `diversification_score`, `kelly_warnings`, `rebalancing_suggestions`.

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>get_scoring_performance</strong> — Metadata and dataset stats (free)</summary>

Returns scoring methodology, current dataset stats, and pricing. Call this first to evaluate whether the paid data is worth it. No API key required.

</details>

### Paid Tools (API key required)

7-day free trial on signup. After trial: pay-per-request in USDC on Polygon. Volume discount: 50% off above 1000 requests/day.

| Tool | Cost |
|------|------|
| `get_shadow_wallets` | $0.05/request |
| `get_top_wallets` | $0.05/request |
| `get_wallet_score` | $0.05/request |
| `get_wallet_pnl` | $0.05/request |
| `get_wallet_clusters` | $0.05/request |
| `get_btc_short_markets` | $0.01/request |
| `analyze_market_sentiment` | $0.05/request |

<details>
<summary><strong>get_shadow_wallets</strong> — Find wallets that co-trade with a whale</summary>

Find wallets that co-trade with a seed wallet across the same Polymarket categories.

```python
get_shadow_wallets(seed_wallet="0xabc...", api_key="your-key")
```

Returns: up to 20 shadow wallets ranked by co-trading intensity, shared categories, win rates.

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>get_top_wallets</strong> — Top-ranked wallets by score and PnL</summary>

Top-ranked Polymarket wallets from MoonMirror's scoring engine (PnL + consistency + specialization - drawdown penalty).

```python
get_top_wallets(api_key="your-key", limit=50, min_score=0.5)
```

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>get_wallet_score</strong> — Full scoring breakdown for any wallet</summary>

Full scoring breakdown for a specific wallet address.

```python
get_wallet_score(address="0xabc...", api_key="your-key")
```

Returns: score components, win rate, trade count, data freshness.

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>get_wallet_pnl</strong> — Realized PnL with per-category breakdown</summary>

Realized PnL for a wallet with per-category breakdown. Pre-computed from Goldsky subgraph.

```python
get_wallet_pnl(address="0xabc...", api_key="your-key")
```

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>get_wallet_clusters</strong> — Wallets independently co-trading with multiple top wallets</summary>

Wallets that independently appear alongside 3+ different top-scoring wallets — stronger signal than a single shadow match.

```python
get_wallet_clusters(api_key="your-key", min_co_trades=3)
```

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>get_btc_short_markets</strong> — Active BTC 5-min and 15-min contracts</summary>

Active BTC 5-min and 15-min Polymarket contracts with token IDs and current midpoint prices. Cached, refreshed every 60 seconds.

```python
get_btc_short_markets(api_key="your-key")
```

</details>

<details>
<summary><strong>analyze_market_sentiment</strong> — Structured probabilistic analysis</summary>

Structured probabilistic analysis for a prediction market question using Claude's reasoning.

```python
analyze_market_sentiment(question="Will Ethereum ETF hit $10B AUM by Q3 2025?", api_key="your-key")
```

</details>

---

## Pricing

| Tier | Cost | Access |
|------|------|--------|
| Free tools | $0 | Slippage, liquidity, timer, price feeds, arbitrage, risk calculator |
| Paid tools | $0.05/request | Wallet intelligence, sentiment analysis |
| Bundle | pip install polymarket-trading-mcp | All 10 tools |

Standalone packages also available: `polymarket-slippage`, `polymarket-liquidity`, `polymarket-arb-detector`, `polymarket-price-feed`, `polymarket-sentiment`, `polymarket-timer`, `polymarket-news`, `polymarket-onchain`

---

## Why this server?

Every other Polymarket MCP server queries public APIs. We have proprietary wallet intelligence — curated scores, real PnL data from Goldsky, and shadow wallet networks discovered through counterparty mining. Data you can't get anywhere else.

The paid wallet tools are backed by **MoonMirror**, a Polymarket wallet intelligence engine. MoonMirror continuously monitors wallets on-chain, scores them on PnL, consistency, and market specialization, and pre-computes shadow wallet relationships.

All wallet queries return in < 100ms because everything is pre-computed. No blocking subgraph calls.

---

## Configuration

All settings via environment variables:

```env
# Server
HOST=127.0.0.1
PORT=8000

# DB paths (for self-hosted wallet intelligence)
MOONMIRROR_DB_PATH=/path/to/moonmirror.db
SERVICES_DB_PATH=/path/to/services.db

# Pricing
PRICE_WALLET_INTEL=0.05
PRICE_MARKET_DATA=0.01
TRIAL_DAYS=7

# Rate limiting
RATE_PER_KEY=5
RATE_GLOBAL=20
```

---

<details>
<summary><strong>Admin CLI</strong></summary>

```bash
# Create an API key
polymarket-mcp --create-key "customer-name"

# Top up a key's USDC balance
polymarket-mcp --top-up YOUR_KEY 10.0
```

</details>

---

[github.com/whitmorelabs/polymarket-mcp](https://github.com/whitmorelabs/polymarket-mcp) — issues, PRs, and stars welcome.