topai_polymarket_arbitrage
Calculate prediction market mispricing, expected value, and Kelly position sizing by comparing a Polymarket price against a benchmark probability for risk-adjusted allocation.
Instructions
Computes prediction market implied probability, mispricing delta, expected value (EV%), and fractional Kelly criterion position sizing between a Polymarket contract price and a reference benchmark probability. Use for quantitative prediction market analysis, odds comparison, and risk-adjusted bankroll allocation. Do not use for standard VAT or invoice accounting (use topai_math_fact_checker instead). Stateless, read-only, idempotent quantitative calculator.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| bankroll_usd | No | Optional total capital bankroll in USD to compute exact dollar stake allocation (e.g., 10000). | |
| polymarket_price | Yes | Current Polymarket YES share price expressed as a decimal between 0.01 and 0.99 (e.g., 0.58 for 58 cents). | |
| reference_probability | Yes | Estimated true probability or sportsbook consensus probability (0.01 to 0.99, or 1 to 99). |