run_event_study_falsification_audit
Calibrate event-study decision rules against predictability-free synthetic OHLC to expose false-positive signal. Runs each null model separately and returns candidate rate, Wilson interval, seed range, and failures.
Instructions
Calibrate one frozen FVG-retest or session-auction event-study decision rule against deterministic, predictability-free synthetic OHLC. It runs each selected null model separately and returns the candidate rate, Wilson interval, seed range, and failures. A candidate requires a global mean confidence interval wholly above zero plus positive evidence in every synthetic fold. It does not read or change TradingView, record a journal entry, rank variants, or establish profitability.
Input Schema
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| bars | No | Synthetic closed bars per replica. Default: 5000 | |
| study | Yes | ||
| models | No | Separate null-model runs. Default: all three; model rates are never pooled | |
| first_seed | No | ||
| volatility | No | ||
| replications | No | Per-model independent replicas. Default: 400 | |
| nominal_alpha | No | Reference candidate rate. Default: 0.05 |